This is all really well put, I'm honestly alarmed at how confident I am in Biden's chances right now.
I would say DeSantis is at most very slightly ahead, not anywhere near being the presumptive nominee. He's doing well enough that a lot of Republicans who never liked Trump that much to begin with are crawling out of the woodwork to tentatively support him. Trump is already calling him a pedophile, but he has to pull his punches against Trump. Nobody has any idea what is going to happen in this primary.
Re Desantis, I feel like this is an illustration of how rw media types have convinced themselves he’s a superstar within their bubble. What is their track record for identifying electorally strong candidates? They think he can pull the wool over Trump voters eyes and implement a national review agenda. That’s what they thought about Rubio. The conversation around him disregards the liabilities discussed here and the ones that’ll be exposed in a primary.
I’m usually not a fan of the SOTU, but last night was the best presidential performance since Bill Clinton, who was a master of SOTU speeches. And I totally agree that focusing on Medicare and Social Security is a winning formula for the Democrats. It has always worked in the past. The majority of voters could care less about the Republican culture wars, but they care greatly about being able to receive Medicare and SS benefits when their time comes. It’s amazing to me that Republicans just can’t help touching that third rail over and over through the years, even though it always ends badly for them.
Down with gerontocracy. Don't just cut Medicare and Social Security. Annihilate them. Old people are the wealthiest and least vulnerable group in America. Why should the money of struggling (or so they constantly tell us) Millennials and Gen Z go to subsidize the idleness of millions of perfectly fit people? People who have put off buying houses and having families are having their pockets picked by greedy old farts. And these people vote for Democrats!
My grandmother recently passed away. She acted like the poorest person you could imagine. She hoarded plastic bags, saying they were "like gold." She died with $200,000 in cash, and a $1.3 million home that was built in the 60s and had never been meaningfully renovated.
Beware old men. They won't live in the world they're creating.
What a bunch of unserious shits. Medicare, Medicaid and SSI made up 49% of the federal budget in 2019. Debt interest payments are 8% of the budget. We’re basically at a debt to GDP of 100% and running a 27% deficit in 2022.
You can’t fix this crap without cutting entitlements along with defense spending and other discretionary spending. Raise taxes across the board to the steady-state revenue maximizing revenue. I don’t care if it’s unpopular, people need to start acting like adults and realize there are no fun solutions when we’ve been throwing an unfunded federal spending party for the last 20 years. To hell with Democrats, Republicans, and voters alike.
1) It was someone else using this strategy, rather than a 2024-hopeful Biden
2) That both parties would come to terms that entitlement reform has GOT to happen at some point (so says...math), and the only way the American voters don't penalize either party for saying so is for BOTH to say so.
I'm thinking one of the above is more likely than the other...
Several people here have already made the point, but it deserves more emphasis--whether you are a Democrat or a Republican or an Independent, the plain fact is that the entitlement programs will not survive without being modified in some way. We've done it before, changing the Social Security age, and increasing taxable liability for those retirees with higher income levels. More changes of this type are absolutely going to be required unless we just throw up our hands and resign ourselves to cutting benefits drastically for all. Republicans (some of them, not all) are idiots for floating ideas like Scott's and Johnson's. Democrats (unfortunately pretty much all of them) are idiots for refusing to admit that something needs to be done besides sticking their collective heads in the sand.
Why people like Josh aren't being hired by Democratic candidates to write their ads or messaging for them is beyond me. Same with the guys from The Liberal Patriot.
Social Security is insolvent. Everybody knows that it needs to be reformed, but now that it's the next "abortion", in terms of political football issues, the Dems will play it like a flute. Since we actually do need Social Security reform, what is the best bipartisan way to not run it dry. There has to be a decent political strategy to bring needed changes. "Joe wants to drive your mom off a cliff" is basically what he's saying when he says he's not going to "touch" Social Security. It's one of those 'no decision is a decision' situations. A bipartisan committee to reform SSI so it's solvent would be nice.
Republicans really have no idea how healthcare spending works. Medicare reimburses less than private insurance, but a lot of Medicare patients would just be uninsured without Medicare, and EMTALA means hospitals have to take those patients anyway so Medicare is basically a financial lifeline and without it a lot of older patients would just never pay for their care. Private dermatology clinics and the like would survive if Medicare became optional, but I’m honestly not sure that hospitals could unless we shoveled subsidies at them (including restarting the pre-ACA charity care subsidies, which were much more opaque than Medicare)
Honestly working in medicine has taught me that modern conservatism shares a lot with Liz Warrenism in that it might work on paper but doesn’t work in the real world.
I think more than anything, swing voters and voters in general rewarded him for his pandemic policy. As you know, the pandemic took a big toll on peoples' livelihoods, and he was able to capitalize really effectively on that in the campaign (in his debate with Crist, a memorable line he said was along the lines of, "I took the arrows from the left-wing CDC and federal government so you wouldn't have to.").
That said, I doubt the majority of his demagoguery works with swing voters, but some of it does. I think the "Don't Say Gay" bill, for example, resonated with people who were probably like, "Yeah, we probably shouldn't be teaching gender ideology to elementary kids," you know what I mean? My wife, who is fairly liberal on social issues, voted for him in part because he stands up to the Left on their overreach. Now, I pushed back and continue to do so because a), it's a topic that needs to be handled with care and not demagogued, and b) the radical gender ideology being taught in schools seems to be regional and primarily in the most progressive cities in America (certainly not in Florida). The obvious retort to that is, "Well, just give it time. Look how much has changed in the last five years." But again, as of right now in Florida, it's not an issue, and I think it was totally unnecessary and mean-spirited, as is much of what he does. Nevertheless, he convinced my wife to vote for him who I would consider a swing voter, so I'm sure it was that way for other swing voters. It's a similar situation with his banning of trans females playing in female sports--on the first day of Pride Month, no less. Voters probably intuitively saw an issue of unfairness in competition, and the fact it was on the first day of Pride Month probably didn't bother them as much as it does Democrats and liberals. I just hope if he gets the nomination, America will see these moves and others as the jackassery that it is and take them into consideration. Although, he may moderate his culture war brazenness in a general election (hopefully), as the electorate of America isn't Florida's electorate.
To sum up, DeSantis knows how to pivot where he needs to, and I think he is very analytical and data-driven. I mean, look at the migrants-to-Martha's Vineyard stunt--polls in Florida showed a majority support, even among the Latino(a) community! And as you've noted in other posts, the fact he didn't move farther to the right on abortion took the wind out of Crist's sails as trying to paint him as an extremist on the issue. I do think his congressional record will haunt him to some degree, and if he moves to the right on abortion to get ahead in the primaries, that will cost him, too. I'm sure he knows that, so I imagine he is biding his time and waiting to see if he needs to or not.
Do you think Trump runs as a spoiler Independent if DeSantis beats him?
(Side note: If you want excellent commentary on DeSantis' policies and theatrics, follow Scott Maxwell on Twitter (he works for the Orlando Sentinel). He is a lot like you--very sharp, independent-minded, and reminds voters with fact-based analysis of a lot of the absurdity that comes out of Tallahassee these days).
Great read today Mr.Barro, while this was one of Biden's better speeches and I hope that Democrats continue to target Republicans on budget items and legislative matters like this, I still hope that Biden doesn't run for re-election. I'm still waiting on McCarthy to actually provide an example of the budget cuts that he wants, not just saying that he wants to "strengthen" Medicare & Social Security by increasing the age of eligibility to 70. The Republicans seem to be very performative right now and I doubt even Trump wants to run on cutting benefits for older Americans. It seems like a losing proposition.
One of the best I've read here; happy paying subscriber.
This is all really well put, I'm honestly alarmed at how confident I am in Biden's chances right now.
I would say DeSantis is at most very slightly ahead, not anywhere near being the presumptive nominee. He's doing well enough that a lot of Republicans who never liked Trump that much to begin with are crawling out of the woodwork to tentatively support him. Trump is already calling him a pedophile, but he has to pull his punches against Trump. Nobody has any idea what is going to happen in this primary.
Re Desantis, I feel like this is an illustration of how rw media types have convinced themselves he’s a superstar within their bubble. What is their track record for identifying electorally strong candidates? They think he can pull the wool over Trump voters eyes and implement a national review agenda. That’s what they thought about Rubio. The conversation around him disregards the liabilities discussed here and the ones that’ll be exposed in a primary.
I’m usually not a fan of the SOTU, but last night was the best presidential performance since Bill Clinton, who was a master of SOTU speeches. And I totally agree that focusing on Medicare and Social Security is a winning formula for the Democrats. It has always worked in the past. The majority of voters could care less about the Republican culture wars, but they care greatly about being able to receive Medicare and SS benefits when their time comes. It’s amazing to me that Republicans just can’t help touching that third rail over and over through the years, even though it always ends badly for them.
Down with gerontocracy. Don't just cut Medicare and Social Security. Annihilate them. Old people are the wealthiest and least vulnerable group in America. Why should the money of struggling (or so they constantly tell us) Millennials and Gen Z go to subsidize the idleness of millions of perfectly fit people? People who have put off buying houses and having families are having their pockets picked by greedy old farts. And these people vote for Democrats!
My grandmother recently passed away. She acted like the poorest person you could imagine. She hoarded plastic bags, saying they were "like gold." She died with $200,000 in cash, and a $1.3 million home that was built in the 60s and had never been meaningfully renovated.
Beware old men. They won't live in the world they're creating.
What a bunch of unserious shits. Medicare, Medicaid and SSI made up 49% of the federal budget in 2019. Debt interest payments are 8% of the budget. We’re basically at a debt to GDP of 100% and running a 27% deficit in 2022.
You can’t fix this crap without cutting entitlements along with defense spending and other discretionary spending. Raise taxes across the board to the steady-state revenue maximizing revenue. I don’t care if it’s unpopular, people need to start acting like adults and realize there are no fun solutions when we’ve been throwing an unfunded federal spending party for the last 20 years. To hell with Democrats, Republicans, and voters alike.
As an retiree and a long time Biden watcher, I was discouraged to see him nominated but l hoped his presidency would lead to some kind of normalcy.
I couldn’t stand Trump but ffs are you kidding?
I guess l wasn’t watching the same speech. Bellowing, vicious Biden lying his ass off for 50 years.
He’s been a horrible president and his policies have led to ruinous inflation and the decimation of retirement accounts for young an old alike.
Have some of column A, try all of column B
I'm in the mood to help you, dude
You ain't never had a friend like me
I wish two things:
1) It was someone else using this strategy, rather than a 2024-hopeful Biden
2) That both parties would come to terms that entitlement reform has GOT to happen at some point (so says...math), and the only way the American voters don't penalize either party for saying so is for BOTH to say so.
I'm thinking one of the above is more likely than the other...
Several people here have already made the point, but it deserves more emphasis--whether you are a Democrat or a Republican or an Independent, the plain fact is that the entitlement programs will not survive without being modified in some way. We've done it before, changing the Social Security age, and increasing taxable liability for those retirees with higher income levels. More changes of this type are absolutely going to be required unless we just throw up our hands and resign ourselves to cutting benefits drastically for all. Republicans (some of them, not all) are idiots for floating ideas like Scott's and Johnson's. Democrats (unfortunately pretty much all of them) are idiots for refusing to admit that something needs to be done besides sticking their collective heads in the sand.
My takeaway from this post: Rick Scott is a secret Democrat plant in the senate Republican caucus!
Why people like Josh aren't being hired by Democratic candidates to write their ads or messaging for them is beyond me. Same with the guys from The Liberal Patriot.
Social Security is insolvent. Everybody knows that it needs to be reformed, but now that it's the next "abortion", in terms of political football issues, the Dems will play it like a flute. Since we actually do need Social Security reform, what is the best bipartisan way to not run it dry. There has to be a decent political strategy to bring needed changes. "Joe wants to drive your mom off a cliff" is basically what he's saying when he says he's not going to "touch" Social Security. It's one of those 'no decision is a decision' situations. A bipartisan committee to reform SSI so it's solvent would be nice.
Republicans really have no idea how healthcare spending works. Medicare reimburses less than private insurance, but a lot of Medicare patients would just be uninsured without Medicare, and EMTALA means hospitals have to take those patients anyway so Medicare is basically a financial lifeline and without it a lot of older patients would just never pay for their care. Private dermatology clinics and the like would survive if Medicare became optional, but I’m honestly not sure that hospitals could unless we shoveled subsidies at them (including restarting the pre-ACA charity care subsidies, which were much more opaque than Medicare)
Honestly working in medicine has taught me that modern conservatism shares a lot with Liz Warrenism in that it might work on paper but doesn’t work in the real world.
I think more than anything, swing voters and voters in general rewarded him for his pandemic policy. As you know, the pandemic took a big toll on peoples' livelihoods, and he was able to capitalize really effectively on that in the campaign (in his debate with Crist, a memorable line he said was along the lines of, "I took the arrows from the left-wing CDC and federal government so you wouldn't have to.").
That said, I doubt the majority of his demagoguery works with swing voters, but some of it does. I think the "Don't Say Gay" bill, for example, resonated with people who were probably like, "Yeah, we probably shouldn't be teaching gender ideology to elementary kids," you know what I mean? My wife, who is fairly liberal on social issues, voted for him in part because he stands up to the Left on their overreach. Now, I pushed back and continue to do so because a), it's a topic that needs to be handled with care and not demagogued, and b) the radical gender ideology being taught in schools seems to be regional and primarily in the most progressive cities in America (certainly not in Florida). The obvious retort to that is, "Well, just give it time. Look how much has changed in the last five years." But again, as of right now in Florida, it's not an issue, and I think it was totally unnecessary and mean-spirited, as is much of what he does. Nevertheless, he convinced my wife to vote for him who I would consider a swing voter, so I'm sure it was that way for other swing voters. It's a similar situation with his banning of trans females playing in female sports--on the first day of Pride Month, no less. Voters probably intuitively saw an issue of unfairness in competition, and the fact it was on the first day of Pride Month probably didn't bother them as much as it does Democrats and liberals. I just hope if he gets the nomination, America will see these moves and others as the jackassery that it is and take them into consideration. Although, he may moderate his culture war brazenness in a general election (hopefully), as the electorate of America isn't Florida's electorate.
To sum up, DeSantis knows how to pivot where he needs to, and I think he is very analytical and data-driven. I mean, look at the migrants-to-Martha's Vineyard stunt--polls in Florida showed a majority support, even among the Latino(a) community! And as you've noted in other posts, the fact he didn't move farther to the right on abortion took the wind out of Crist's sails as trying to paint him as an extremist on the issue. I do think his congressional record will haunt him to some degree, and if he moves to the right on abortion to get ahead in the primaries, that will cost him, too. I'm sure he knows that, so I imagine he is biding his time and waiting to see if he needs to or not.
Do you think Trump runs as a spoiler Independent if DeSantis beats him?
(Side note: If you want excellent commentary on DeSantis' policies and theatrics, follow Scott Maxwell on Twitter (he works for the Orlando Sentinel). He is a lot like you--very sharp, independent-minded, and reminds voters with fact-based analysis of a lot of the absurdity that comes out of Tallahassee these days).
Are Medicare and Social Security really non-financial issues?
Great read today Mr.Barro, while this was one of Biden's better speeches and I hope that Democrats continue to target Republicans on budget items and legislative matters like this, I still hope that Biden doesn't run for re-election. I'm still waiting on McCarthy to actually provide an example of the budget cuts that he wants, not just saying that he wants to "strengthen" Medicare & Social Security by increasing the age of eligibility to 70. The Republicans seem to be very performative right now and I doubt even Trump wants to run on cutting benefits for older Americans. It seems like a losing proposition.