*This* is why I subscribed. It's everything I've thought about Newsom as a Californian but articulated better.
What really irks me is how overtly national every campaign he has run has been. Even the recall, the most prominent ad I saw featured Elizabeth Warren saying "Don't let Trump Republicans fool you!" Fine, I'm a Democrat I'm not going to let Larry Elder take charge, but they definitely decided the way to win was to frame it as part of the national struggle vs what Newsom will be doing in California for Californians.
A few weeks ago during the heat wave there was an alert to turn off our power to prevent blackouts. To our credit we as a state we did so. There are still ads to conserve electricity in the evenings. I'm glad a crisis was averted but what are we doing to increase capacity so we can actually use electricity when we want to. This is a local kitchen table issue and Newsom is totally absent here.
I think a serious problem blue state politicians have when they try to go national is that blue states (and cities) are rarely better-governed than red states when it comes to some starkly noticeable kitchen table issues. When I was a kid, I loved visiting Portland and Seattle; now when I go to them, I'm just sad at how trashy they've become. It's not a good selling point for your ability to govern well when public streets look like junkyards, 2/3 of storefronts are boarded up, and parks are off-limits because they're full of aggressive panhandlers.
And I think voters blame Ds more than Rs for this because Rs are forever blabbing about private sector solutions, while Ds are the ones who are actually supposed to care about competent governance.
And it only gets worse because blue city people won’t admit that it’s a problem because they feel that gives the Rs a valid talking point, which comes at the cost of actually making their cities a better place for their citizens
The only positive I've seen from Newsom was his COVID briefings and response early in the pandemic. The early response basically kept most of California from overrunning our Hospital capacity. Everything else about Newsom is basically postering. One should not take the recall result as popularity. I do not like Newsom, I won't vote for his reelection, but I also voted against the recall. You shouldn't recall someone because he tells you to wear a mask during a pandemic. The French Laundry thing was a mistake, but doesn't rise to the level of recall (but certainly fair to bring up in a reelection).
If the democrats want me to vote for DeSantos, they could do no better then nominating Gavin Newsom!
bob
PS I also miss Jerry Brown (the second incarnation), Maybe he can run for president in 2028. Biden has already blown the top off the 'He's too old' argument.
I have immense respect for Nancy Pelosi, who I think has been an incredible Speaker, but she's of a different generation. Between Harris's wet thump and Newsom's general ick, I'm ready for a moratorium on California Democrats getting active nationally until we figure out what the heck's going on.
Completely agree. He's a mostly competent governor. He should keep that job for a few more years then retire to his vineyard.
It is funny though, I have lived in SF for three years and only heard about his young gf and affair this summer. Very interesting how he was able to moved past it. Bill Clinton without the charm is very apt.
Edit: also. I love the joke that all of the politicians (Breed too) were eating at French Laundry during the pandemic because it was the first time they could get a res.
Thank you Josh. I obviously would prefer Newsom to a DeSantis presidency but at this point Newsom needs to worry more about CA than anything else. I think he's a decent Governor, but that doesn't mean you can win a national election, I hate that you are so accurate on all of these points lol. He is a Wish version of Bill Clinton and its sad. Someone like Mayor Pete, Doug Jones, hell even Tim Kaine or people like that have a better chance at being President and winning than Newsom. He is just trying to capitalize on whatever fame he has right now.
Ok, I really appreciated mentioning the Empire State Pride event and Kimberly Guillfoyle, because I remember listening to that on the radio and being gobsmacked -- I believe she said something like "I know you have a question for me, and the answer is yes, he is hung" and then when all the stuff about her making people at Fox uncomfortable with her bawdy talk came out I thought -- yeah that Kimberly Guillfoyle is really sex positive. Anyway I agree on all the Gavin points -- he will never be President -- I think he is attractive enough that if he had done a really good job of pandemic management (rolled out in home testing early, put kids back in school by the fall of 2020 etc) he could have been a contender despite all of his weaknesses -- but he didn't and so it's a joke. I also thought it was really weird that when Gavin and Kamala got together to decide who would run for Senate and who would run for Governor that the results ended up as they did. She always had a better case to make for being President someday, and being a good Governor would have been a much better way to launder being too liberal from California than being a Senator. But all of that is to say that Biden as a 2024 candidate is not a sure thing by any stretch -- it seems like he would beat Trump but not clear that he would beat anyone younger and while he is doing fine as President it feels a little like how people respected Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State but were repulsed by her as a presidential nominee. I understand that we don't have a clear preferable alternative, but I do think it's time to start making one and I agree that it's not Gavin but I think that we should be seeing Gretchen Whitmer on CNN and MSNBC all the time. It seems noteworthy to me that Biden won during a weird COVID election where he did far fewer public events than would normally be the case and I worry about how he would hold up in a normal campaign.
I’m ok with having a backup plan for 2024 because he’s old enough that health can’t be a given, but openly or semi-openly campaigning is just sort of gross and weird. And more to the point I think it can’t succeed, because if everyone ignores you then you lose, but if people start paying attention then it becomes a distraction.
This was a fantastic and much needed takedown of Newsom.
To me, his sole appeal, if you can call it that, is: "Hey Democrats! I'm YOUR DeSantis!" Which, as a Democrat, if that is really what we need that is pretty fucking depressing.
I personally highly dislike Newsom and don't want him anywhere near the national political foreground...but I'm not sure how much evidence there is that he's actually off-putting the way you say he is. It's worrisome to me that, while obviously anecdotal, the universal reaction to him from all of the normie people in my life is that he's tall and handsome.
He has been off-putting for 20 years, and he has always been a say or do anything candidate for his entire career.
He is an old money San Francisco liberal, a governor who sends his kids to in-person private schools while public schools are closed. He is a world class phony, and combined with the lack of any seasoning due to the absence of any real competition in CA, he is primed to be Kamala 2.0.
I suspect Josh knows perfectly well Biden is unlikely to be a candidate in 2024, when he will be 81. So what is the point of this rant, except self-indulgence?
Josh is one of the few guys who actually believed Biden would be nominee when everyone in the media dismissed him. So go on dismiss Biden’s extremely obvious re-election plans, youll be wrong again.
I think most people believe Biden will be the candidate. I also agree with Josh’s take on Newsom. He is not an attractive national level candidate. I’ve long found him to be an annoying grandstander.
Biden appears to both enjoy the job, and believe this is an incredibly important time to keep Rs out of power. Why would he give up his incumbency advantage to allow weaker candidates to run?
He’s been pretty effective honestly! Even his failures were mostly because he did things the left wanted, like the overly large stimulus that spurred inflation. And on nonpartisan things like Ukraine it’s hard to imagine anyone doing better
AFG pullout, too (I don't remember if this audience shares my view that you almost can't lose a war, or more precisely terminate the prosecution of a war that was lost long ago, any more neatly than that)
Well, I originally was with you, but Josh has at least sold me on the idea that Newsom isn’t a good candidate. He’s not going to pull over any moderates and he’s likely to turn off people grossed out by his antics.
I agree Biden is old- too old. I hope someone (else) steps up. But I have to say, the more I pay attention to Biden, the more I like him. With his recent legislative wins and the recent 60 minutes- Dark Brandon is rising.
Biden would be, at best, a mediocre candidate. Newsom would be a piss-poor candidate. I disagree with Josh's assessment of Biden and the idea that Newsom shouldn't run because the nomination "belongs" to Biden. But I agree with him that Newsome shouldn't run because he's unqualified and an ass.
Biden "renomination remains Democrats’ best chance to hold the White House in two years." ??? Your normally astute analysis just hit a huge "seriously?" bump. Newsom is smarmy and gross and looks like he's trying to be cast to take Donald Sutherland's place in the Hunger Games, and should most assuredly not run for POTUS, but Biden as dems best chance? Pretty bleak.
Just for clarification: Is the claim here that intra-party primary challenges (e.g., Ted Kennedy in '80, Pat Buchanan in '92) are inherently unseemly? Or is it that Newsom is doing something else that breaks decorum? Is it that he's pretending to put himself out there for, oh, say, 2028, while really angling for 2024, in the event some "unfortunate accident" were to befall the incumbent?
Historical question I truly don't know the answer to: How much of this sort of preliminary campaigning by other Democrats was going on during the will-he-or-won't-he phase of LBJ deciding whether to run again in '68?
Historical question I should know the answer to but am too addled to recall: Is there a more recent precedent that's directly on point?
Let’s be clear. This isn’t a Biden vs Newsom argument. Newsom would never primary Biden. It would be political suicide IMO and he wouldn’t be able to raise the $$$ to primary him. If Biden opts not to run, I agree with Josh. Harris would be a superior California candidate and, in candor, I don’t think either of them get the nomination. Neither get Dems the upper Midwest states they need to win to be competitive and I don’t think either play in Arizona either.
I think Biden’s “legislative victories” are being massively oversold here. He was gifted a D trifecta by Trump’s petulant meddling in Georgia runoffs where both D candidates were beaten in the original race, and used it almost entirely to spend money that a) boosted the inflation that could easily result in a recession when he’s trying to get re-elected and b) as Yglesias frequently points out, allows GOP governors to spend lavishly at home while bashing the source of the largesse.
What, if anything, will be different about life in the US as a result of the first half of Biden’s term in the long run? Presumably some bridges, mostly overpriced compared to European social democracies? On the biggest issue of the day, abortion, he can’t even effectively marshal legislative support to pin the Republicans into uncomfortable votes.
Obama turned his trifecta into the ACA. Whatever you think about it on the merits, you can’t deny that it’s still the regime under which American health care runs a decade later. What is comparable for Biden?
*This* is why I subscribed. It's everything I've thought about Newsom as a Californian but articulated better.
What really irks me is how overtly national every campaign he has run has been. Even the recall, the most prominent ad I saw featured Elizabeth Warren saying "Don't let Trump Republicans fool you!" Fine, I'm a Democrat I'm not going to let Larry Elder take charge, but they definitely decided the way to win was to frame it as part of the national struggle vs what Newsom will be doing in California for Californians.
A few weeks ago during the heat wave there was an alert to turn off our power to prevent blackouts. To our credit we as a state we did so. There are still ads to conserve electricity in the evenings. I'm glad a crisis was averted but what are we doing to increase capacity so we can actually use electricity when we want to. This is a local kitchen table issue and Newsom is totally absent here.
I miss Jerry Brown.
I think a serious problem blue state politicians have when they try to go national is that blue states (and cities) are rarely better-governed than red states when it comes to some starkly noticeable kitchen table issues. When I was a kid, I loved visiting Portland and Seattle; now when I go to them, I'm just sad at how trashy they've become. It's not a good selling point for your ability to govern well when public streets look like junkyards, 2/3 of storefronts are boarded up, and parks are off-limits because they're full of aggressive panhandlers.
And I think voters blame Ds more than Rs for this because Rs are forever blabbing about private sector solutions, while Ds are the ones who are actually supposed to care about competent governance.
And it only gets worse because blue city people won’t admit that it’s a problem because they feel that gives the Rs a valid talking point, which comes at the cost of actually making their cities a better place for their citizens
The only positive I've seen from Newsom was his COVID briefings and response early in the pandemic. The early response basically kept most of California from overrunning our Hospital capacity. Everything else about Newsom is basically postering. One should not take the recall result as popularity. I do not like Newsom, I won't vote for his reelection, but I also voted against the recall. You shouldn't recall someone because he tells you to wear a mask during a pandemic. The French Laundry thing was a mistake, but doesn't rise to the level of recall (but certainly fair to bring up in a reelection).
If the democrats want me to vote for DeSantos, they could do no better then nominating Gavin Newsom!
bob
PS I also miss Jerry Brown (the second incarnation), Maybe he can run for president in 2028. Biden has already blown the top off the 'He's too old' argument.
This: is harsh, but 💯 true. The man is literally plastic. Imagine him campaigning in West Virginia, etc.
I have immense respect for Nancy Pelosi, who I think has been an incredible Speaker, but she's of a different generation. Between Harris's wet thump and Newsom's general ick, I'm ready for a moratorium on California Democrats getting active nationally until we figure out what the heck's going on.
I do NOT have immense respect for Nancy Pelosi, but I agree with everything else you said. :)
I had never made the connection that Newsom is Democrat's Ted Cruz until now. Thanks for the article!
"he might hit on your wife, if she's hot." hahahaha
Bitchy josh is best josh.
Completely agree. He's a mostly competent governor. He should keep that job for a few more years then retire to his vineyard.
It is funny though, I have lived in SF for three years and only heard about his young gf and affair this summer. Very interesting how he was able to moved past it. Bill Clinton without the charm is very apt.
Edit: also. I love the joke that all of the politicians (Breed too) were eating at French Laundry during the pandemic because it was the first time they could get a res.
Thank you Josh. I obviously would prefer Newsom to a DeSantis presidency but at this point Newsom needs to worry more about CA than anything else. I think he's a decent Governor, but that doesn't mean you can win a national election, I hate that you are so accurate on all of these points lol. He is a Wish version of Bill Clinton and its sad. Someone like Mayor Pete, Doug Jones, hell even Tim Kaine or people like that have a better chance at being President and winning than Newsom. He is just trying to capitalize on whatever fame he has right now.
You deserve a like just for making a great Wish joke.
Ok, I really appreciated mentioning the Empire State Pride event and Kimberly Guillfoyle, because I remember listening to that on the radio and being gobsmacked -- I believe she said something like "I know you have a question for me, and the answer is yes, he is hung" and then when all the stuff about her making people at Fox uncomfortable with her bawdy talk came out I thought -- yeah that Kimberly Guillfoyle is really sex positive. Anyway I agree on all the Gavin points -- he will never be President -- I think he is attractive enough that if he had done a really good job of pandemic management (rolled out in home testing early, put kids back in school by the fall of 2020 etc) he could have been a contender despite all of his weaknesses -- but he didn't and so it's a joke. I also thought it was really weird that when Gavin and Kamala got together to decide who would run for Senate and who would run for Governor that the results ended up as they did. She always had a better case to make for being President someday, and being a good Governor would have been a much better way to launder being too liberal from California than being a Senator. But all of that is to say that Biden as a 2024 candidate is not a sure thing by any stretch -- it seems like he would beat Trump but not clear that he would beat anyone younger and while he is doing fine as President it feels a little like how people respected Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State but were repulsed by her as a presidential nominee. I understand that we don't have a clear preferable alternative, but I do think it's time to start making one and I agree that it's not Gavin but I think that we should be seeing Gretchen Whitmer on CNN and MSNBC all the time. It seems noteworthy to me that Biden won during a weird COVID election where he did far fewer public events than would normally be the case and I worry about how he would hold up in a normal campaign.
I’m ok with having a backup plan for 2024 because he’s old enough that health can’t be a given, but openly or semi-openly campaigning is just sort of gross and weird. And more to the point I think it can’t succeed, because if everyone ignores you then you lose, but if people start paying attention then it becomes a distraction.
This was a fantastic and much needed takedown of Newsom.
To me, his sole appeal, if you can call it that, is: "Hey Democrats! I'm YOUR DeSantis!" Which, as a Democrat, if that is really what we need that is pretty fucking depressing.
I personally highly dislike Newsom and don't want him anywhere near the national political foreground...but I'm not sure how much evidence there is that he's actually off-putting the way you say he is. It's worrisome to me that, while obviously anecdotal, the universal reaction to him from all of the normie people in my life is that he's tall and handsome.
He has been off-putting for 20 years, and he has always been a say or do anything candidate for his entire career.
He is an old money San Francisco liberal, a governor who sends his kids to in-person private schools while public schools are closed. He is a world class phony, and combined with the lack of any seasoning due to the absence of any real competition in CA, he is primed to be Kamala 2.0.
John Edwards was successful for awhile too! Which is not a bad comp in several ways, honestly...
If it makes you feel any better, all the normie people in MY life (many of whom still live in CA) think he's an ass.
Do you live in California?
I suspect Josh knows perfectly well Biden is unlikely to be a candidate in 2024, when he will be 81. So what is the point of this rant, except self-indulgence?
Josh is one of the few guys who actually believed Biden would be nominee when everyone in the media dismissed him. So go on dismiss Biden’s extremely obvious re-election plans, youll be wrong again.
I think most people believe Biden will be the candidate. I also agree with Josh’s take on Newsom. He is not an attractive national level candidate. I’ve long found him to be an annoying grandstander.
He could be 91, I'm ridin' with Biden.
Biden appears to both enjoy the job, and believe this is an incredibly important time to keep Rs out of power. Why would he give up his incumbency advantage to allow weaker candidates to run?
Biden on being too old for the job: “Watch me” *with a grin*
He’s been pretty effective honestly! Even his failures were mostly because he did things the left wanted, like the overly large stimulus that spurred inflation. And on nonpartisan things like Ukraine it’s hard to imagine anyone doing better
AFG pullout, too (I don't remember if this audience shares my view that you almost can't lose a war, or more precisely terminate the prosecution of a war that was lost long ago, any more neatly than that)
Well, I originally was with you, but Josh has at least sold me on the idea that Newsom isn’t a good candidate. He’s not going to pull over any moderates and he’s likely to turn off people grossed out by his antics.
I agree Biden is old- too old. I hope someone (else) steps up. But I have to say, the more I pay attention to Biden, the more I like him. With his recent legislative wins and the recent 60 minutes- Dark Brandon is rising.
Biden would be, at best, a mediocre candidate. Newsom would be a piss-poor candidate. I disagree with Josh's assessment of Biden and the idea that Newsom shouldn't run because the nomination "belongs" to Biden. But I agree with him that Newsome shouldn't run because he's unqualified and an ass.
Biden "renomination remains Democrats’ best chance to hold the White House in two years." ??? Your normally astute analysis just hit a huge "seriously?" bump. Newsom is smarmy and gross and looks like he's trying to be cast to take Donald Sutherland's place in the Hunger Games, and should most assuredly not run for POTUS, but Biden as dems best chance? Pretty bleak.
You probably thought Biden had no chance of winning the nomination in 2020.
Heh heh. Touche!
Just for clarification: Is the claim here that intra-party primary challenges (e.g., Ted Kennedy in '80, Pat Buchanan in '92) are inherently unseemly? Or is it that Newsom is doing something else that breaks decorum? Is it that he's pretending to put himself out there for, oh, say, 2028, while really angling for 2024, in the event some "unfortunate accident" were to befall the incumbent?
Historical question I truly don't know the answer to: How much of this sort of preliminary campaigning by other Democrats was going on during the will-he-or-won't-he phase of LBJ deciding whether to run again in '68?
Historical question I should know the answer to but am too addled to recall: Is there a more recent precedent that's directly on point?
Let’s be clear. This isn’t a Biden vs Newsom argument. Newsom would never primary Biden. It would be political suicide IMO and he wouldn’t be able to raise the $$$ to primary him. If Biden opts not to run, I agree with Josh. Harris would be a superior California candidate and, in candor, I don’t think either of them get the nomination. Neither get Dems the upper Midwest states they need to win to be competitive and I don’t think either play in Arizona either.
I think Biden’s “legislative victories” are being massively oversold here. He was gifted a D trifecta by Trump’s petulant meddling in Georgia runoffs where both D candidates were beaten in the original race, and used it almost entirely to spend money that a) boosted the inflation that could easily result in a recession when he’s trying to get re-elected and b) as Yglesias frequently points out, allows GOP governors to spend lavishly at home while bashing the source of the largesse.
What, if anything, will be different about life in the US as a result of the first half of Biden’s term in the long run? Presumably some bridges, mostly overpriced compared to European social democracies? On the biggest issue of the day, abortion, he can’t even effectively marshal legislative support to pin the Republicans into uncomfortable votes.
Obama turned his trifecta into the ACA. Whatever you think about it on the merits, you can’t deny that it’s still the regime under which American health care runs a decade later. What is comparable for Biden?
Oops, I forgot to mention, I agree with everything here about Newsom.