Also, the memo again illustrates the ignorance that AI guys have of other industries. For example, commercial insurance renewals don’t function on inertia, that market is efficient with everyone struggling to shave off as much cost as they can. Polices are constantly shopped and re-shopped already.
The idea that consumers will move - en masse by 2028 - to AI-powered providers is also absurd. This may be true *in Silicon Valley*, but Joe and Karen Boomer aren't going to "give AI Realtor a whirl" when it's time to sell their lifelong home.
Yep, some will try, but I see AI as an efficiency increaser by and large. I don’t see it ever being to properly gauge things like honesty and reliability. So much of business is about feel and trust. Will an AI realtor be licensed and insured, could you sue it if it zoned out and destroyed your sale?
Great point. Even 12 years ago, I felt that I was capable of buying a home on my own (I found the house and then called my realtor). What I *was* willing to pay for was their professional liability policy, along with the interpersonal hassle of dealing with a very annoying seller.
I was going to say the same thing - my commercial broker shops my policies around to more than a dozen carriers annually, and has been known to get us set up with better carriers through >1y of outreach. Maybe your homeowner just googles “house insurance” and picks the first result or something, but not commercial insurance.
Also, there's the not so small matter that even if one could vibe-code an app similar to DoorDash's, there's the matter that the DoorDash app relies on a pool of delivery laborers and agreements with the restaurants that use the app's service to provide delivery. The latter is not so easy to replicate.
Plenty of folks would benefit from reading some of Bastiat's classics ("A Negative Railroad" and Candlestick Maker's Petition are good places to start).
There is a real concern over the transition of labor from disruptive technology, but that's something that can and should be managed directly, rather than feared.
There has yet to be a technology that has permanently reduced employment overall. There have been (failed) predictions that we will enjoy more leisure time due to productivity gains, but humans just can't do that. The hedonistic treadmill is real.
My husband worked in AI for a while, and from him I learned how absolutely nuts it would be to trust it to put together a themed brunch, much less sell my house or plan my vacation. AIs don't think, don't "know" anything, and are designed to give the user what they want. Asking something like that to sell your house is like Narcissus thinking that neat pond will give him a good sense of himself.
Recently, I was testing the most up to date version of ChatGPT. I gave it documented proof of a certain political figure’s dishonesty, the proof was documented in mainstream media reports and via the persons own words. It refused to draw any conclusions about their honesty or reliability, even when I pushed it. Such an entity as a lawyer, agent or realtor is horrifying.
Also, the memo again illustrates the ignorance that AI guys have of other industries. For example, commercial insurance renewals don’t function on inertia, that market is efficient with everyone struggling to shave off as much cost as they can. Polices are constantly shopped and re-shopped already.
The idea that consumers will move - en masse by 2028 - to AI-powered providers is also absurd. This may be true *in Silicon Valley*, but Joe and Karen Boomer aren't going to "give AI Realtor a whirl" when it's time to sell their lifelong home.
Yep, some will try, but I see AI as an efficiency increaser by and large. I don’t see it ever being to properly gauge things like honesty and reliability. So much of business is about feel and trust. Will an AI realtor be licensed and insured, could you sue it if it zoned out and destroyed your sale?
Great point. Even 12 years ago, I felt that I was capable of buying a home on my own (I found the house and then called my realtor). What I *was* willing to pay for was their professional liability policy, along with the interpersonal hassle of dealing with a very annoying seller.
I was going to say the same thing - my commercial broker shops my policies around to more than a dozen carriers annually, and has been known to get us set up with better carriers through >1y of outreach. Maybe your homeowner just googles “house insurance” and picks the first result or something, but not commercial insurance.
Some of these market swings make no sense at all. Does 15% of IBM's revenue really come from COBOL?
Why is Instacart up 2% but Doordash down 8%?
Also, there's the not so small matter that even if one could vibe-code an app similar to DoorDash's, there's the matter that the DoorDash app relies on a pool of delivery laborers and agreements with the restaurants that use the app's service to provide delivery. The latter is not so easy to replicate.
Plenty of folks would benefit from reading some of Bastiat's classics ("A Negative Railroad" and Candlestick Maker's Petition are good places to start).
There is a real concern over the transition of labor from disruptive technology, but that's something that can and should be managed directly, rather than feared.
There has yet to be a technology that has permanently reduced employment overall. There have been (failed) predictions that we will enjoy more leisure time due to productivity gains, but humans just can't do that. The hedonistic treadmill is real.
My husband worked in AI for a while, and from him I learned how absolutely nuts it would be to trust it to put together a themed brunch, much less sell my house or plan my vacation. AIs don't think, don't "know" anything, and are designed to give the user what they want. Asking something like that to sell your house is like Narcissus thinking that neat pond will give him a good sense of himself.
Recently, I was testing the most up to date version of ChatGPT. I gave it documented proof of a certain political figure’s dishonesty, the proof was documented in mainstream media reports and via the persons own words. It refused to draw any conclusions about their honesty or reliability, even when I pushed it. Such an entity as a lawyer, agent or realtor is horrifying.