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Alex Gaynor's avatar

It's worth also noting that being an expert in a field doesn't make you a good forecaster! This is most famously written about in Tetlock's "Superforecasting" -- who would make a fascinating guest!

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Sam C's avatar

I buy that that the ARP exacerbated the inflation problem, but it seems like inflation is becoming a problem all over the world (including in countries with far less generous fiscal responses to COVID) while US inflation is still mostly being blamed on US stimulus. Has anyone studied how much inflation can be attributed to the ARP?

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