I think the core problem here is fairly simple: while most of the elected officials are smart enough to know this is not true, from top to bottom the entire campaign staffs continue, hope against hope, to earnestly believe the Great Turnout Myth. The only reason Joe Manchin wins by such narrow margins in WV is because he doesn't propose the Green New Deal, Medicare for All, UBI, etc.
Mandela Barnes is getting hammered by the execrable Ron Johnson in Wisconsin for being "not just another Democrat, but a radical, dangerous Democrat", and what does his campaign do? Fly in fucking Liz Warren.
I’ve never understood the argument that our democracy is under threat. Yes what Trump in late 2020 was very wrong. He absolutely shouldn’t have done it and should be condemned for his actions.
But… it didn’t work. He wasn’t even close to succeeding in overturning the 2020 election results. It’s not a sign of democracy failing that Trump attempted this. It’s a sign of democracy WORKING that Trump was blocked at every turn.
That’s the whole point. We always expect bad actors. The test of a system is your ability to repel the bad actors. And in that arena democracy in America is just as amazing and robust as it always has been.
This piece made me remember a number of months ago when Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema were villified for sinking Biden's $3.4T BBB plan. Given inflation, it kinds seems like progressive Dems owe them an apology, right?
While I don't disagree with much of what you've said in your rant, and I am turned off by much of the leftward tilt of the Democratic party, I kind of do feel that there is only one choice of party to the extent that candidates on the Republican side continue to support the debunked election fraud hypothesis, and/or are already making noises about not honoring election results if they don't win (e.g. Kari Lake among others). If my choice is between someone like that and a Democrat, it's not a choice at all. My nightmare scenario is a choice between someone like that and a far left Democrat.
1. Regarding Elevating Loonies. Indeed, the chance of winning election is not zero. FiveThirtyEight has Kari Lake in Arizona as a 2:1 favorite and has John Gibbs in MI-3 as only a slight underdog (45:55). Joe Kent appears to be heading towards an easy win in WA-3 after toppling Herrera-Beutler in the primary (although tbf, I'm not aware of Democratic PACs boosting Kent).
2. I think the manic behavior on Democratic side in regard to democracy is driven by a couple of factors. First is that the political energy in the Democratic coalition is on the progressive side (much as it is on the MAGA loony side for Republicans, although that seems to oscillate more at the given moment). So the Democrats are looking for their car keys under the street lamp where the light is good. Second is the David Shor problem. I think most politically active Democrats are aware that it is likely the Senate is going to be more biased against them in the near future based on demographics and population density. And the is causing them to be frenetic in strategy. On one side, they want to entrench as much policy as they can right now and potentially take steps to entrench their political power going forward (statehood for DC and Puerto Rico, push map drawing down to commissions where they have been successful in California is perpetrating gerrymandering through such commissions). On the other side, the want to try and appeal to a big-tent strategy on the issue of democracy and keeping election denying jackwads out of power. The former strategy undermines the latter.
I'm conflicted. On the one hand, I agree that the "save democracy" rhetoric does next to nothing to persuade voters. On the other hand, I believe that the rhetoric is pretty much 100% accurate on its substance. I don't have any good suggestions for how to campaign when one party is a genuine threat to American democracy and the electorate doesn't particularly care.
Meghan, great to see another WI suburbanite over here! I agree that Evers has the charisma of a Kwik Trip sandwich but I think that's kind of exactly what WI needed after the constant drama of Walker. I think a lot of Michels' attacks on Evers for how he handled Kenosha are in pretty bad faith. The dude mobilized the National Guard and sent them, what else is he supposed to do, grab a riot shield and enter the fray?
As for the DCCC, I am not a huge fan of it but I see it as everyday realpolitik and think the outrage over it is fairly contrived.
I will vote for Barnes but agree he's a subpar candidate. He's said too many dumb things in the past that should have come up in the primary but were ignored. Too bad because I think Ron Johnson is the most embarrassing WI elected official since McCarthy.
Anyways, here's to a brighter WI future! At least the Bucks are still good!
Man this all just feels like the democrats are setting themselves up to blame someone else for an 11/8 loss, which will probably come down to low turnout. This party (and I guess the GOP too) is just incapable of learning lessons and is just going to double down on whatever nets the most fundraising wins. They'll cycle through a few more apparatchiks down there at the DNC HQ but new boss is old boss.
Choosing election deniers is indeed a choice one has today -so democracy is still alive- but it sure feels like it could be the last choice you ever have if the maga crew wins and decides they'll only accept outcomes when they don't lose, hence eliminating choice and democracy.
I hear your frustrations, Josh, but I'd love to hear your thoughts on how Democratic candidates should talk about opponents who are literally saying that they either don't believe in democracy ("this is a republic, not a democracy") or that they will aggressively enact anti-democratic legislation such as voting restrictions or allowing their party to select presidential electors independently of the voting outcomes in their state. What is the right way to categorize this kind of behavior?
Josh what do you think of Wisconsin, where this antidemocratic future has already come to pass. Democrats really cannot win in the legislature even with more votes. And with supermajorities in the legislature, the state GOP do what they want.
Partly inspired by your previous post about Democrats' current woes, I wrote a post on my blog discussing my own thoughts on the matter. My biggest criticism is that while Biden has not encouraged domestic oil production, it has still gone up under him. Oil companies lost money in 2014 and 2020 and don't want to repeat that. Absent a guarantee of making a profit, they probably will not start drilling any time soon. In early 2021, gas prices were still low and trying to subsidize oil production would have been an impossible sell. The issue was not really on anyone's radar then. As for the ARP, there is plenty of debate as to how much inflation it caused. There doesn't seem to be any solid consensus. I am not taking a side on it, just pointing that out. Maybe without it growth would have been lower and unemployment higher. You also have to remember that in 2009 Democrats did not spend enough on stimulus measures and the economy suffered for it for years. Who was at the scene of the crime advising to spend the bare minimum? Larry Summers. That episode undoubtedly had a big effect on stimulus efforts in 2021. That doesn't let anyone pushing it off the hook, but this treating of Summers as a sage irritates me to no end given his terrible track record. Anyway, if you have time, please read what I wrote. I would greatly appreciate it.
On the economic front, do we still have a good sense of how much of inflation is driven simply by standard goods vs supply trends and supply chain issues vs how much is just corporate greed and general capitalism? We as Americans are generally consumers and we love convenience. The Times today had an article (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/01/business/food-prices-profits.html) explaining how corporations are definitely raising prices more than
On the energy front the Biden administration definitely hasn't been as friendly as previous administrations related to land leases, however most of us should know that oil is a global commodity and when you hear energy and consumer good companies making record profits in a time when most people are struggling its clear that something doesn't add up.
I do agree 100% though, that if the DNC really believed their "threats to democracy" rhetoric then they wouldn't have tried to elevate terrible candidates on the GOP side. I'd argue they'd also push for more electable people in winnable races. I'd also believe that they'd listen to what the electorate is saying about what their pain points are and addressing those pain points, such as peoples concerns about immigration, crime, energy costs or inflation.
That said, the modern loud GOP members have engaged in a lot of stochastic terrorism with their rhetoric, misinformation, and don't offer a plan either. It seems that unfortunately is enough for their voters though. I live in GA and there are people who want Walker to win even though he is a terrible candidate, simply because they want their team to win. I definitely think the "threats to democracy" are overblown, but I don't think the threats to women's rights, abortion rights, unions, teachers, climate change, voting rights, political violence, are not overblown.
I think the core problem here is fairly simple: while most of the elected officials are smart enough to know this is not true, from top to bottom the entire campaign staffs continue, hope against hope, to earnestly believe the Great Turnout Myth. The only reason Joe Manchin wins by such narrow margins in WV is because he doesn't propose the Green New Deal, Medicare for All, UBI, etc.
Mandela Barnes is getting hammered by the execrable Ron Johnson in Wisconsin for being "not just another Democrat, but a radical, dangerous Democrat", and what does his campaign do? Fly in fucking Liz Warren.
What can you say?
I’ve never understood the argument that our democracy is under threat. Yes what Trump in late 2020 was very wrong. He absolutely shouldn’t have done it and should be condemned for his actions.
But… it didn’t work. He wasn’t even close to succeeding in overturning the 2020 election results. It’s not a sign of democracy failing that Trump attempted this. It’s a sign of democracy WORKING that Trump was blocked at every turn.
That’s the whole point. We always expect bad actors. The test of a system is your ability to repel the bad actors. And in that arena democracy in America is just as amazing and robust as it always has been.
This piece made me remember a number of months ago when Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema were villified for sinking Biden's $3.4T BBB plan. Given inflation, it kinds seems like progressive Dems owe them an apology, right?
While I don't disagree with much of what you've said in your rant, and I am turned off by much of the leftward tilt of the Democratic party, I kind of do feel that there is only one choice of party to the extent that candidates on the Republican side continue to support the debunked election fraud hypothesis, and/or are already making noises about not honoring election results if they don't win (e.g. Kari Lake among others). If my choice is between someone like that and a Democrat, it's not a choice at all. My nightmare scenario is a choice between someone like that and a far left Democrat.
Good article Josh.
1. Regarding Elevating Loonies. Indeed, the chance of winning election is not zero. FiveThirtyEight has Kari Lake in Arizona as a 2:1 favorite and has John Gibbs in MI-3 as only a slight underdog (45:55). Joe Kent appears to be heading towards an easy win in WA-3 after toppling Herrera-Beutler in the primary (although tbf, I'm not aware of Democratic PACs boosting Kent).
2. I think the manic behavior on Democratic side in regard to democracy is driven by a couple of factors. First is that the political energy in the Democratic coalition is on the progressive side (much as it is on the MAGA loony side for Republicans, although that seems to oscillate more at the given moment). So the Democrats are looking for their car keys under the street lamp where the light is good. Second is the David Shor problem. I think most politically active Democrats are aware that it is likely the Senate is going to be more biased against them in the near future based on demographics and population density. And the is causing them to be frenetic in strategy. On one side, they want to entrench as much policy as they can right now and potentially take steps to entrench their political power going forward (statehood for DC and Puerto Rico, push map drawing down to commissions where they have been successful in California is perpetrating gerrymandering through such commissions). On the other side, the want to try and appeal to a big-tent strategy on the issue of democracy and keeping election denying jackwads out of power. The former strategy undermines the latter.
I'm conflicted. On the one hand, I agree that the "save democracy" rhetoric does next to nothing to persuade voters. On the other hand, I believe that the rhetoric is pretty much 100% accurate on its substance. I don't have any good suggestions for how to campaign when one party is a genuine threat to American democracy and the electorate doesn't particularly care.
Meghan, great to see another WI suburbanite over here! I agree that Evers has the charisma of a Kwik Trip sandwich but I think that's kind of exactly what WI needed after the constant drama of Walker. I think a lot of Michels' attacks on Evers for how he handled Kenosha are in pretty bad faith. The dude mobilized the National Guard and sent them, what else is he supposed to do, grab a riot shield and enter the fray?
As for the DCCC, I am not a huge fan of it but I see it as everyday realpolitik and think the outrage over it is fairly contrived.
I will vote for Barnes but agree he's a subpar candidate. He's said too many dumb things in the past that should have come up in the primary but were ignored. Too bad because I think Ron Johnson is the most embarrassing WI elected official since McCarthy.
Anyways, here's to a brighter WI future! At least the Bucks are still good!
Man this all just feels like the democrats are setting themselves up to blame someone else for an 11/8 loss, which will probably come down to low turnout. This party (and I guess the GOP too) is just incapable of learning lessons and is just going to double down on whatever nets the most fundraising wins. They'll cycle through a few more apparatchiks down there at the DNC HQ but new boss is old boss.
Choosing election deniers is indeed a choice one has today -so democracy is still alive- but it sure feels like it could be the last choice you ever have if the maga crew wins and decides they'll only accept outcomes when they don't lose, hence eliminating choice and democracy.
I suspect Josh will progress to *really* not caring for this over the next 5-6 days.
I hear your frustrations, Josh, but I'd love to hear your thoughts on how Democratic candidates should talk about opponents who are literally saying that they either don't believe in democracy ("this is a republic, not a democracy") or that they will aggressively enact anti-democratic legislation such as voting restrictions or allowing their party to select presidential electors independently of the voting outcomes in their state. What is the right way to categorize this kind of behavior?
Josh what do you think of Wisconsin, where this antidemocratic future has already come to pass. Democrats really cannot win in the legislature even with more votes. And with supermajorities in the legislature, the state GOP do what they want.
Thank you for this!
Hi Josh,
Partly inspired by your previous post about Democrats' current woes, I wrote a post on my blog discussing my own thoughts on the matter. My biggest criticism is that while Biden has not encouraged domestic oil production, it has still gone up under him. Oil companies lost money in 2014 and 2020 and don't want to repeat that. Absent a guarantee of making a profit, they probably will not start drilling any time soon. In early 2021, gas prices were still low and trying to subsidize oil production would have been an impossible sell. The issue was not really on anyone's radar then. As for the ARP, there is plenty of debate as to how much inflation it caused. There doesn't seem to be any solid consensus. I am not taking a side on it, just pointing that out. Maybe without it growth would have been lower and unemployment higher. You also have to remember that in 2009 Democrats did not spend enough on stimulus measures and the economy suffered for it for years. Who was at the scene of the crime advising to spend the bare minimum? Larry Summers. That episode undoubtedly had a big effect on stimulus efforts in 2021. That doesn't let anyone pushing it off the hook, but this treating of Summers as a sage irritates me to no end given his terrible track record. Anyway, if you have time, please read what I wrote. I would greatly appreciate it.
https://whatandythinks.com/2022/10/29/what-could-democrats-have-done-to-improve-their-midterm-fortunes/
Hi Mr. Barro,
On the economic front, do we still have a good sense of how much of inflation is driven simply by standard goods vs supply trends and supply chain issues vs how much is just corporate greed and general capitalism? We as Americans are generally consumers and we love convenience. The Times today had an article (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/01/business/food-prices-profits.html) explaining how corporations are definitely raising prices more than
On the energy front the Biden administration definitely hasn't been as friendly as previous administrations related to land leases, however most of us should know that oil is a global commodity and when you hear energy and consumer good companies making record profits in a time when most people are struggling its clear that something doesn't add up.
I do agree 100% though, that if the DNC really believed their "threats to democracy" rhetoric then they wouldn't have tried to elevate terrible candidates on the GOP side. I'd argue they'd also push for more electable people in winnable races. I'd also believe that they'd listen to what the electorate is saying about what their pain points are and addressing those pain points, such as peoples concerns about immigration, crime, energy costs or inflation.
That said, the modern loud GOP members have engaged in a lot of stochastic terrorism with their rhetoric, misinformation, and don't offer a plan either. It seems that unfortunately is enough for their voters though. I live in GA and there are people who want Walker to win even though he is a terrible candidate, simply because they want their team to win. I definitely think the "threats to democracy" are overblown, but I don't think the threats to women's rights, abortion rights, unions, teachers, climate change, voting rights, political violence, are not overblown.
Man, Josh went in today.