This is a great column, but it won't change the stranglehold ideologues have on the Democratic Party, its staffing and the think tanks and universities that feed that staffing. Their answer will always be that the US is a white supremacist hellhole so why is anyone surprised Trump won? And they'll keep losing elections as a result and people will leave the Democratic Party, like I did in 2021, until the pain gets so bad they'll have no choice but TO change. But that may take awhile.
Trump makes it even worse. All of the energy, money and attention will be directed toward the most moralizing and extreme progressives as the loudest voices opposing Trump. Trump makes everything worse, including his opponents.
This attitude is almost as unproductive as the ideologues themselves. If we don’t like how things are going, the conversation should be about how to change it, not why it can’t be changed.
The solution is relatively simple: hire fewer leftist ideologues. Hire staffs with more diverse ranges of opinions and backgrounds and importantly hire people who have the temperament to disagree and even argue with each other on different issues in a constructive, non-toxic way.
Not a member of the party, uninterested in how to dislodge the infrastructure they've spent decades building, which basically funnels people from universities to think thanks to a Democratic administration and then back again. Rinse and repeat.
You are right. The Party needs to fix its priorities and particularly moderate on social issues, but that will require standing up to their left wing—who will likely be very happy to tell them to pound sand and will thus leave the Party having to find other potential allies as a replacement.
I don’t know if that means they can court center-right voters who dislike MAGA or what, but the sad fact is the Dem coalition is more fragmented and less culturally unified than the Right. So if they can’t forge alliances elsewhere, I honestly don’t know what they’re gonna do.
One thing progressives will have to accept is if they want to have any influence policy-wise at all, they can’t have everything they want, no matter how passionate or activist-minded they are. Compromise is necessary to move other shared goals forward. I don’t have high hopes for that right now, but like you say, if Dems lose enough elections (same with the Right), they’ll wake up.
Given the awful numbers with Latinos, I hope Latinx is washed from the Democrats lexicon. I fear, giving some of the commentary I've seen that it won't be. Great column Josh!
This column made me think a lot about the "woman-owned-business" scam that blue-state Democrats have enabled. That is, if you have, or can make it look like you have, a woman in charge, you get to skirt the much-more-heavily-enforced rules on staffing for government contracts; i.e. x% minority staff, x% union, etc.
You can bet conservatives have noticed this and love to exploit it. My spouse's Trump-supporter mother, in CA, was more than happy to take government money during COVID because on paper, though she has no employees, technically owns an LLC and therefore was eligible for lots of incentives. She knows she's ripping the public off, but she does it gleefully.
One thing I've seen surprisingly little attention on is the truly giant shift in crime policy voting. In ten years California went from supporting Prop 47 (decriminalization of drugs and theft) by 20 points to supporting Prop 36 (re-criminalization) by 40 points. Progressive DA Gascon won by 7 in 2020, he is being beaten in LA county by a literal Republican by 22 points. I'm not totally convinced that this is a major driver of Trump's vote surge, among other things Trump's gain was weakest in WA and OR where belligerent homeless people are a very big issue, but it seems very plausible that some fraction of the Prop 47/Prop 35 voters are also Biden/Trump voters.
Also, 4 years later, it's kind of amazing how badly BLM has fizzled/backfired. Like, they've accomplished negative 500% of what they set out to do.
Interesting that you state at the beginning of your article that electing Trump is a bad thing, then you spend the rest of the post pointing out how Democrats have failed at the basics of governing in every way, which is a great argument for why it's actually a very good thing that Trump was elected. Even with all the opposition, the last time he was able to trim back government interference in the economy and pass some effective broad-based tax cuts that increased growth and employment for everyone. One of the biggest problems in America today is a tremendously intrusive government that imposes huge economic costs with overregulation and threat of rogue agency actions against business for no valid reason. I believe Trump will scale much of that back and free up our economy to grow and thrive, for the benefit of all. The legacy media will not tell this story, but it's out there.
The problem is that Trump has shown no indication of being a good decision maker.
He's promoted a quack treatment for for COVID-19, hydroxychloroquine, and failed to model sane PPE use during the pandemic and turning it into a partisan thing when he didn't have to. He suggested injecting disinfectant as possible treatment for COVID as well. And now he's threatening to put RFK, Jr. in charge of the FDA!
He held back aid to Ukraine -- illegally -- in order to pressure Zelenskyy to dig up dirt on his political opponent, Biden. This is what led people to his first impeachment.
He hoarded huge amounts of classified documents in his personal residence, even in his bathroom, for no obvious reason, and then refused to cooperate to give them back.
He tried to steal an election by seating fake electors, and then by inciting a riot on the Capitol. Heck, if the Supreme Court had insisted on a plain-text reading of the 14th amendment instead of trying to wriggle out of it, he probably wouldn't have been allowed on the ballot.
He's kissed up to dictators. He's erratic and rambling.
If the election of a man like that sounds good to you, then you have high ignorance or low standards.
That is the legacy press interpretation of his presidency. That's my point. All the actions you cite above as fact are only partially fact and a lot of critical opinion generated to damage his presidency. Half of the country interpret the same actions in a very different way. Your gratuitous insult to my intelligence for disagreeing with Democrat talking points is not called for and is a very good example of why millions of people voted against the Democrat candidate.
Again, a sad comment on the very different worlds that leftists and regular people live in. I will not reply any further since your side seems more inclined to insult me than to actually debate facts. Another leftist trait. When you can't argue facts, throw insults.
That's the same generalization that many on the left make of people who voted for Trump. I am far from a leftist. I'm a registered republican. I consider myself a moderate. So let's stop the generalizations and talk about actual facts. Ramsey gave an actual list of issues with Trump. Many of those things are why I would rather vote for Harris than Trump. Trump should fit my ideal candidate: He's a moderate that makes conservatives think he's a conservative (a.la.Ronald Reagon). The problem is he seems to be too self-centered to actually play the 'I can talk big to own the libs, but I'll actually make policy compromises to solve real issues." He also seems to have little grasp on the concept of 'rule of law'. These are options, the are based on the facts that Ramsey's laid out. A good rebuttal to Ramseys is to go through point by point saying why they aren't facts (there a few low hanging fruit you should be able to push back on).
My take is this is 4 more years and then it's done. We can get back to debating policy not personality.
I think all of those things can be true, but still tell an incomplete story. The list omits any mention of economic policy & doesn't mention the border etc...
A majority of voters decided that other issues (economy, immigration, law & order etc...) were more important to them, and while I may disagree with their interpretation I don't think it invalid.
I am curious, though, as to what you actually dispute from J. J.'s list (minus the last line). You can argue the point on "illegally" holding back aid to Ukraine as he did deliver it, but only after the whistleblower complaint. As a side note, though I think the Zelensky call reflected extremely poorly on Trump I do not think it amounted to an impeachable offense.
"I think all of those things can be true, but still tell an incomplete story. The list omits any mention of economic policy & doesn't mention the border etc."
My list is more than enough to illustrate Trump's unfitness.
As for his economic policy? In his first term, he mostly coasted on a good economy that he inherited, plus some tax cuts (with the permanent ones being for the rich, IIRC). His border policy was a shambles. His wall would have largely been a Maginot line defense, since a lot of illegal immigration goes through ports of entry, and he couldn't get it most of it built anyway, let alone get Mexico to pay for it. Mostly what he did do was cause a lot of misery for the migrants who came. And he certainly didn't solve a lot of the long-standing dysfunctions that have made the nominally closed border with Mexico porous.
I'm not sure why you'd say that Trump's attempted shakedown of Zelenskyy wasn't an impeachable defense. He was basically trying to use his political power for his own personal gain, while threatening the security of a friendly country in the process. That's utterly corrupt.
It is fairly obvious that Trump can make it all worse. He does not care about cities.
For what it's worth, he does not care about building more housing either. And he will impose economic costs in the form of tariffs. I assume you already forgot about balancing the budget.
I mean, you can think one candidate/party is incompetent, but also think another candidate/party is even more incompetent. And you can also understand why people might be drawn to the more incompetent party based on their experiences.
Trump is dumb, lazy, petulant, impulsive, and corrupt. None of those are the qualities of a good leader. He's also a sexual predator with a suspicious number of ties to the likes of Jeff Epstein and Diddy, although that's admittedly not necessarily relevant to his ability to govern the country.
His presidency is going to be filled with high tariffs, rent-seeking, and regulatory capture which are going to do the opposite of "freeing up" the economy.
But the silver lining is that, again, he's lazy and dumb and he's older and has less energy than he did 8 years ago, so he might not accomplish much for those reasons alone. Plus, despite what the election results might lead some people to think, he's still broadly unpopular (53% of voters still had an unfavorable of him according to exit polls), so he's going to provide an opportunity for Democrats to quickly break the GOP trifecta. Democrats should be favorites to retake the House in 2026 without changing anything, but if they can fix their shit even just a little, they might have a decent shot at the Senate, too.
I'll give him credit for some things - speaking up against the asymmetric trade situation with China. (and that influenced the Biden administration to act on it with the CHIPS Act and industrial policy), moving the opinion of the entire country on illegal immigration and Operation Warp Speed. I have a mixed opinion about his tax cuts. Directionally I agree with the structure of the individual income tax code and also the corporate tax code but it has led to higher deficits which he has no plans to pay for. If you don't care about Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid or Obamacare, that's fine with me but at some point those programs are going to see deep cuts to pay for those tax cuts. I would like to see Republicans defend cuts to those programs at the time.
Edit: His huge unfunded Covid relief bills also contributed to the inflation, something only Biden gets blamed for.
I concede the growth aspect of Trump’s tax cuts the first time around (though targeting them primarily toward the rich is certainly debatable), but even with that acknowledged and the failures of Democratic governance in the article that Josh points out, in my mind, that is no substitute for voting Trump back in.
I won’t go over the litany of behavior and lawlessness that in my view disqualifies him from ever holding the office again, but on a separate point, even if you compare Trump’s and Kamala’s policy proposals this time around, his will be highly disruptive (mass deportations) and inflationary (more tax cuts, high tariffs, pressure on the Fed to keep rates low). I am not against deporting people who shouldn’t be here, but not in the militaristic, vile way Trump plans to. And I am not opposed to tax cuts even for wealthy people and big businesses, but I don’t think it should be primarily targeted to them and I definitely think those tax cuts, regardless of who’s proposing them, should be offset with spending reduction (I highly doubt Trump will touch Social Security, Medicare, or the military. He will very likely cut Medicaid—benefits for the poorest among us).
All of that is to say, I think the choice was clear in Kamala.
The electorate obviously disagreed. I respect your disagreement and say all this in kindness of feeling. But I truly do lament, more than anything, that character seems to play no role anymore in choosing who holds the highest office in the land.
My reaction to the 2024 election is so much different than in 2016 -- though in both cases I had nothing but contempt for the Democratic nominee who couldn't beat Donald Trump.
I woke up the day after the 2016 election and reacted like Charlton Heston at the end of Planet of the Apes. Trump was even worse than I imagined, but we made it through.
This time, while I have nothing but disdain for people who voted to go through *that* again, and have even lower expectations for Trump, I'm even more angry at the Democratic party leadership, The Groups, and Joe Biden (who never should've chosen Harris as VP in the first place).
I assume we'll get through it, and the midterms will put a check on President Trump. But I don't assume the Democrats will learn a damn thing. Not unless another Bill Clinton rises from the ashes.
Thank you for your brutal honesty about poor governance in deep blue states/cities and poor policy choices made by the Biden administration. Trying to fool the voters with Dark Brandon memes and "the Fed caused the inflation" unfortunately didn't work even though I agree that the "Orange man is bad" and an unacceptable choice for me and many voters.
I’m glad in some way that voters didn’t buy this BS. It assumes that the government can act as irresponsibly as possible with fiscal policies and the Fed has to bear all responsibility for fixing the issues that arise out of it.
I think the point here is a bit semantic. It is the Fed that chooses between high inflation and high interest rates -- you can have less of one if you have more of the other. But they both make voters angry, and you need different fiscal policy if you want both inflation and interest rates to be modest. That's what only Congress can produce.
I used to be a Dem political speechwriter back in the 90s. I think we made a major mistake when we stopped using the bully pulpit of office to inspire/demand more from citizens. Great global cities stay that way because citizens take pride in their communities. In Tokyo, a lot of the subway trains have wooden floors. They can do that because riders don’t treat trains like their personal garbage cans. It’s a privilege to live in a great city and the least you can do is pick up for yourself, don’t treat your city job like a no show freebie gig, maybe ask your union to cool it with the 10 percent annual wage increases and increasing political control, like we have here in Chicago. These things cost nothing, but they mean so much for the livability of our cities and the sense that those who chose to live this way feel invested here and want others to envy us.
When Harris starting making her rallies a "celebrity" event she lost the average voter.
Hillary made the same mistake. Trump usually has some average person who has been wronged by either criminals, immigrants, or the government. Voters identify with someone like themselves not some high priced singer, athlete, or movie star.
I'm glad I can talk again about the foolishness of passing more stimulus while we're already in recovery, instead of pretending that wasn't true for the last few months.
Question: How do you feel about the idea of this all being a vibes election? I.e. Do all the policy failings you mentioned pre-suppose a level of engagement that most voters simply didn’t have? And if that’s the case, will any policy fix actually be likely to bring anyone back?
Why? She is the perfect example of an empty suit, she can't answer a question or string two sentences together without a teleprompter. How could she excite anyone? I would actually like to know, if there are any reasons. Any other than identity politics and DEI, that is.
All fair criticisms but Trump also babbles incoherently like a low IQ person. If you think he's a charismatic speaker, you're just a partisan with very low standards for politicians that you support and can't credibly make the claims that you're making.
I agree with 99% here, but I think one of the major things democrats got wrong with cost of living wasn't just saying "look at my programs" but telling voters "No, you're wrong, the economy is great and inflation isn't a problem anymore."
Your comments about the party focusing as much as possible on spending more money even while inflation was at its peak have reminded me anew how mad I was about the repeated attempts to have the taxpayers pay for student debt, lol.
Agree with totally about the D’s ineptitude xand complete misreading of the electorate. But generally disagree with your fears concerning the next four years of the Trump presidency.
I’m a swing state voter and agree with almost everything in this piece. I say almost because I struggle with this part
“As for trans issues, I have been skeptical about their political salience”
As early as last spring, there was chatter about the issue of trans girls in girls athletic teams in my upper middle class early-mid 40s suburban parents circle. My wife is one of the team moms for my daughter’s soccer team and we heard a couple of previously barely engaged parents get animated about this. These are people who have “Regulate guns, not women” bumper stickers. No one raised their concerns in broader settings to avoid being called transphobic or anti-LGBTQ, but I’d not be surprised if some quietly voted for Trump.
Dems need to get their heads out of the sand in this issue.
Yes. For one of the parents, the mom was a competitive swimmer who had an athletic scholarship in college. The Lia Thomas controversy really rubbed her the wrong way. She actually asked us to sign a petition or something like that about a Title IX change. The other couple - they have an older daughter on the high school fencing team and had to compete against a trans athlete from another school.
I am sending you my post yesterday. Most of the U.S. are betting on Trump for another four years, and then the nightmare will be over. Please read and I apologize for the length. It was an expression of my anger yesterday.
WORLDWIDE DESTRUCTION COMES IN TWO FIVE-LETTER WORDS - PUTIN & TRUMP
Yesterday (November 5th), Rachael Maddow published a “Maddowblog” that she titled “Russian efforts to interfere with U.S. elections reach a new level. The questions isn’t whether Russia is targeting U.S. elections to help Donald Trump. It’s why?” To quote the first paragraph from this blog: “As Election Day got underway in Georgia, a handful of polling locations in Fulton County were temporarily evacuated after receiving bomb threats. The threats, fortunately, weren’t credible. As for who was responsible for making the threats, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger briefed news organizations on the developments. ‘We identified the source,’ the Republican official told reporters, and ‘it was from Russia.” In case you forgot, Brad Raffensperger is the same person who taped a phone call from then President Donald Trump in 2020 asking him to find 11,680 more votes. This bomb scare via the Russians is just the beginning of Trump’s revenge toward those who oppose him.
To answer Maddow’s question “why” are the Russians interfering in U.S. Elections - well, I have been writing about this since 2019 and attempting to warn Americans about Putin’s intentions toward the U.S. He now has maneuvered a man into the U.S. Presidency for a second time, that will provide him with U.S. top-secret information, that will not allow the U.S. to help Ukraine in their fight for freedom, and will DO AND JUMP THROUGH HOOPS to keep Putin happy in any way. This time around, Trump may pull the U.S. out of NATO - an alliance of democratic countries started in 1947 to protect the world from another Hitler. Unfortunately, another Hitler is now about to sleep in the White House again for not just another 4-year term but perhaps for the rest of his life. Remember Trump’s quote to Christians “that if you vote for me in November, in four years, you don’t have to vote again. We’ll have it fixed so good, you’re not gonna have to vote.” (Reuters, “Trump tells Christians they won’t have to vote after this election,” by Tim Reid, July 28, 2024) Believe him. Putin was voted into office in 2000 through an election. Almost 25 years later, he is still in office and refuses to leave.
The massive ignorance of “red-state” voters and others has once again allowed a criminal to rule this country. Trump is a convicted fraud (business, tax, and bank reports proved it without a doubt); he was convicted of 34 felony counts; and adjudicated and legally labeled a “sexual predator.” He instigated the insurrection to prevent the certification of the 2020 election. This, my friends, is treason. He now has control of the Senate, the House, and the Supreme Court. There are no more safety nets.
To repeat a passage from my last Substack message “From 1924 to 1933, the Nazi Party transformed from a small, violent, revolutionary party to the largest elected party in Germany (The Holocaust Explained, The Wiener Holocaust Library) “Following his release from prison on 20 December 1924, Hitler - yes he was a criminal too just like Trump - convinced the Chancellor of Bavaria to remove the ban on the Nazi Party. The rest is history. Hitler decided to change tactics and instead he focused on winning support for his party democratically and being elected into power. The Nazi Party changed from a paramilitary organization centralized on overthrowing the republic by force, to one focused on gaining power through elections and popular support.” Hitler’s decisions and actions are just like Donald Trump’s and the January 6th insurrection with American paramilitary organizations like The Proud Boys. (Ibid) In a matter of only a few years, Hitler’s Germany murdered over six million humans and was the decisive and momentous force that began World War II which killed another fifteen million soldiers and innocent people - who were all fighting for freedom. Hitler played a major role in the formation of political ideals for Vladimir Putin, and now Putin has played a similar role with Donald Trump.
Worldwide devastation and a repeat of World War II may be approaching. Only at this particular time and in the United States, we may not be on the side of freedom and democracy. The loss of women’s reproductive rights will spill over to other restrictive laws backed up by an American Gestapo. In the House of Representatives, H.R.6918 and other bills may legalize the monitoring of pregnant women. Now Trump will have control of the Senate as well as the House. There is no stopping him.
Let’s make it abundantly clear or extremely obvious to understand - Donald Trump was most likely caught with his pants down in Russia and photographed from all angles. Every single hotel room in Russia assigned to a foreigner - and especially an American - has cameras and listening devices. In Trump’s many trips to Russia, he also visited the Beverly Hills nightclub, casino, and restaurant. This club is known for it’s corruption, naked women, and famous faces - and cameras in the walls. In any case, this man was caught and bribed by Russian KGB/FSB and Putin. To prevent and block his embarrassment, he submits to Putin’s will and wishes.
I spent about twenty years living and working in dictator-led countries - mostly Russia. I have been through the KGB/FSB entrapment process just like Trump, only I was smarter. I lived in apartments, and he stayed in luxury hotels - only every single hotel room in Russia assigned to a foreigner has cameras and listening devices in the ceiling and walls. No exceptions.
I no longer have high hopes for our democracy. Just like the Germans about 100 years ago, our society has become subjugated to a man who is a criminal, who will say and do anything to protect his own ass, and has little to no economic sense but convinced millions of people he can control the debt. I will not be surprised if within a few short years, our country has been bankrupted. In the last quarter of 2020, our economy dropped by 32.9% - the largest dive in the history of the U.S. and all due to his spending. Do your own research. (GDP Drops at 32.9% Rate, the Worst U.S. Contraction Ever, NPR, July 30, 2020)
Do not blame the Democratic or even the Republican Parties. In 1997 in Russia, a book was published called The Foundations of Geopolitics. It outlines Putins presidential goals and his planned revenge on the United States who he blames for the downfall of the Soviet Union. His plan is the same approach used by Hitler to convince the masses to elect him and then follow his insane ideas - which slaughtered over 6 million humans and killed at least another 15 million on battlefields fighting for freedom from tyranny. I now wonder how many more will die because the U.S. just voted into the highest office of our land a man who does NOT care about the thousands of deaths in Ukraine or elsewhere - caused by Putin.
This collective decision by our country is a huge mistake, and we will all pay the price over time. Trump is just as vindictive and implacable as Putin.
Until you can provide detailed specific evidence of your claims I will consider you a delusional conspiracy theorist in the same class as the showboating Adam Schiff who now will dishonor the Senate as he has dishonored the House. Rachel bought into Schiff’s disproved claims hook line and sinker. She is a very intelligent woman with absolutely no wisdom.
The narrative that 'Russian interference in the election caused Trump to win' is as destructive to our system of government as the narrative that 'The democrats stole the 2020 election'. The latter was driven by 'we all know how popular Trump is among real people and how it's impossible that he could lose.. and we found real evidence of fraud'. Yes there is fraud in very election, but it's minor, often discovered and corrected and did not affect the results of the 2020 election.
In the same way, yes there was a concerted effort by Russian to affect the outcome of our election. Yes, Trump is Putin's preferred candidate.... and as Josh pointed out, the place of greatest damage to the US and the world will be in the foreign policy arena. BUT it is very clear that the Russian attempt to meddle in our elections was NOT why trump won. The meddling would only have been effective in the margins. Trump won both the popular vote (for the first time ever) and won handedly in the swing states. Do not become a liberal version of Trump by pushing these narratives. Pushing them is only an excuse not to start cleaning house In the Democratic party and fixing the issues Josh points out.
This is a great column, but it won't change the stranglehold ideologues have on the Democratic Party, its staffing and the think tanks and universities that feed that staffing. Their answer will always be that the US is a white supremacist hellhole so why is anyone surprised Trump won? And they'll keep losing elections as a result and people will leave the Democratic Party, like I did in 2021, until the pain gets so bad they'll have no choice but TO change. But that may take awhile.
Trump makes it even worse. All of the energy, money and attention will be directed toward the most moralizing and extreme progressives as the loudest voices opposing Trump. Trump makes everything worse, including his opponents.
This attitude is almost as unproductive as the ideologues themselves. If we don’t like how things are going, the conversation should be about how to change it, not why it can’t be changed.
The solution is relatively simple: hire fewer leftist ideologues. Hire staffs with more diverse ranges of opinions and backgrounds and importantly hire people who have the temperament to disagree and even argue with each other on different issues in a constructive, non-toxic way.
Not a member of the party, uninterested in how to dislodge the infrastructure they've spent decades building, which basically funnels people from universities to think thanks to a Democratic administration and then back again. Rinse and repeat.
You are right. The Party needs to fix its priorities and particularly moderate on social issues, but that will require standing up to their left wing—who will likely be very happy to tell them to pound sand and will thus leave the Party having to find other potential allies as a replacement.
I don’t know if that means they can court center-right voters who dislike MAGA or what, but the sad fact is the Dem coalition is more fragmented and less culturally unified than the Right. So if they can’t forge alliances elsewhere, I honestly don’t know what they’re gonna do.
One thing progressives will have to accept is if they want to have any influence policy-wise at all, they can’t have everything they want, no matter how passionate or activist-minded they are. Compromise is necessary to move other shared goals forward. I don’t have high hopes for that right now, but like you say, if Dems lose enough elections (same with the Right), they’ll wake up.
Given the awful numbers with Latinos, I hope Latinx is washed from the Democrats lexicon. I fear, giving some of the commentary I've seen that it won't be. Great column Josh!
This column made me think a lot about the "woman-owned-business" scam that blue-state Democrats have enabled. That is, if you have, or can make it look like you have, a woman in charge, you get to skirt the much-more-heavily-enforced rules on staffing for government contracts; i.e. x% minority staff, x% union, etc.
You can bet conservatives have noticed this and love to exploit it. My spouse's Trump-supporter mother, in CA, was more than happy to take government money during COVID because on paper, though she has no employees, technically owns an LLC and therefore was eligible for lots of incentives. She knows she's ripping the public off, but she does it gleefully.
One thing I've seen surprisingly little attention on is the truly giant shift in crime policy voting. In ten years California went from supporting Prop 47 (decriminalization of drugs and theft) by 20 points to supporting Prop 36 (re-criminalization) by 40 points. Progressive DA Gascon won by 7 in 2020, he is being beaten in LA county by a literal Republican by 22 points. I'm not totally convinced that this is a major driver of Trump's vote surge, among other things Trump's gain was weakest in WA and OR where belligerent homeless people are a very big issue, but it seems very plausible that some fraction of the Prop 47/Prop 35 voters are also Biden/Trump voters.
Also, 4 years later, it's kind of amazing how badly BLM has fizzled/backfired. Like, they've accomplished negative 500% of what they set out to do.
Interesting that you state at the beginning of your article that electing Trump is a bad thing, then you spend the rest of the post pointing out how Democrats have failed at the basics of governing in every way, which is a great argument for why it's actually a very good thing that Trump was elected. Even with all the opposition, the last time he was able to trim back government interference in the economy and pass some effective broad-based tax cuts that increased growth and employment for everyone. One of the biggest problems in America today is a tremendously intrusive government that imposes huge economic costs with overregulation and threat of rogue agency actions against business for no valid reason. I believe Trump will scale much of that back and free up our economy to grow and thrive, for the benefit of all. The legacy media will not tell this story, but it's out there.
The problem is that Trump has shown no indication of being a good decision maker.
He's promoted a quack treatment for for COVID-19, hydroxychloroquine, and failed to model sane PPE use during the pandemic and turning it into a partisan thing when he didn't have to. He suggested injecting disinfectant as possible treatment for COVID as well. And now he's threatening to put RFK, Jr. in charge of the FDA!
He held back aid to Ukraine -- illegally -- in order to pressure Zelenskyy to dig up dirt on his political opponent, Biden. This is what led people to his first impeachment.
He hoarded huge amounts of classified documents in his personal residence, even in his bathroom, for no obvious reason, and then refused to cooperate to give them back.
He tried to steal an election by seating fake electors, and then by inciting a riot on the Capitol. Heck, if the Supreme Court had insisted on a plain-text reading of the 14th amendment instead of trying to wriggle out of it, he probably wouldn't have been allowed on the ballot.
He's kissed up to dictators. He's erratic and rambling.
If the election of a man like that sounds good to you, then you have high ignorance or low standards.
That is the legacy press interpretation of his presidency. That's my point. All the actions you cite above as fact are only partially fact and a lot of critical opinion generated to damage his presidency. Half of the country interpret the same actions in a very different way. Your gratuitous insult to my intelligence for disagreeing with Democrat talking points is not called for and is a very good example of why millions of people voted against the Democrat candidate.
Every single statement there is a verifiable fact. That you deny that speaks to the bizarre non factual world you live in.
Again, a sad comment on the very different worlds that leftists and regular people live in. I will not reply any further since your side seems more inclined to insult me than to actually debate facts. Another leftist trait. When you can't argue facts, throw insults.
You're not debating the facts he presented. You're just getting angry and calling everyone who disagrees with you a "leftist"
That's the same generalization that many on the left make of people who voted for Trump. I am far from a leftist. I'm a registered republican. I consider myself a moderate. So let's stop the generalizations and talk about actual facts. Ramsey gave an actual list of issues with Trump. Many of those things are why I would rather vote for Harris than Trump. Trump should fit my ideal candidate: He's a moderate that makes conservatives think he's a conservative (a.la.Ronald Reagon). The problem is he seems to be too self-centered to actually play the 'I can talk big to own the libs, but I'll actually make policy compromises to solve real issues." He also seems to have little grasp on the concept of 'rule of law'. These are options, the are based on the facts that Ramsey's laid out. A good rebuttal to Ramseys is to go through point by point saying why they aren't facts (there a few low hanging fruit you should be able to push back on).
My take is this is 4 more years and then it's done. We can get back to debating policy not personality.
'options' should have been 'opinions'...
I think all of those things can be true, but still tell an incomplete story. The list omits any mention of economic policy & doesn't mention the border etc...
A majority of voters decided that other issues (economy, immigration, law & order etc...) were more important to them, and while I may disagree with their interpretation I don't think it invalid.
I am curious, though, as to what you actually dispute from J. J.'s list (minus the last line). You can argue the point on "illegally" holding back aid to Ukraine as he did deliver it, but only after the whistleblower complaint. As a side note, though I think the Zelensky call reflected extremely poorly on Trump I do not think it amounted to an impeachable offense.
"I think all of those things can be true, but still tell an incomplete story. The list omits any mention of economic policy & doesn't mention the border etc."
My list is more than enough to illustrate Trump's unfitness.
As for his economic policy? In his first term, he mostly coasted on a good economy that he inherited, plus some tax cuts (with the permanent ones being for the rich, IIRC). His border policy was a shambles. His wall would have largely been a Maginot line defense, since a lot of illegal immigration goes through ports of entry, and he couldn't get it most of it built anyway, let alone get Mexico to pay for it. Mostly what he did do was cause a lot of misery for the migrants who came. And he certainly didn't solve a lot of the long-standing dysfunctions that have made the nominally closed border with Mexico porous.
I'm not sure why you'd say that Trump's attempted shakedown of Zelenskyy wasn't an impeachable defense. He was basically trying to use his political power for his own personal gain, while threatening the security of a friendly country in the process. That's utterly corrupt.
It is fairly obvious that Trump can make it all worse. He does not care about cities.
For what it's worth, he does not care about building more housing either. And he will impose economic costs in the form of tariffs. I assume you already forgot about balancing the budget.
I mean, you can think one candidate/party is incompetent, but also think another candidate/party is even more incompetent. And you can also understand why people might be drawn to the more incompetent party based on their experiences.
Trump is dumb, lazy, petulant, impulsive, and corrupt. None of those are the qualities of a good leader. He's also a sexual predator with a suspicious number of ties to the likes of Jeff Epstein and Diddy, although that's admittedly not necessarily relevant to his ability to govern the country.
His presidency is going to be filled with high tariffs, rent-seeking, and regulatory capture which are going to do the opposite of "freeing up" the economy.
But the silver lining is that, again, he's lazy and dumb and he's older and has less energy than he did 8 years ago, so he might not accomplish much for those reasons alone. Plus, despite what the election results might lead some people to think, he's still broadly unpopular (53% of voters still had an unfavorable of him according to exit polls), so he's going to provide an opportunity for Democrats to quickly break the GOP trifecta. Democrats should be favorites to retake the House in 2026 without changing anything, but if they can fix their shit even just a little, they might have a decent shot at the Senate, too.
I'll give him credit for some things - speaking up against the asymmetric trade situation with China. (and that influenced the Biden administration to act on it with the CHIPS Act and industrial policy), moving the opinion of the entire country on illegal immigration and Operation Warp Speed. I have a mixed opinion about his tax cuts. Directionally I agree with the structure of the individual income tax code and also the corporate tax code but it has led to higher deficits which he has no plans to pay for. If you don't care about Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid or Obamacare, that's fine with me but at some point those programs are going to see deep cuts to pay for those tax cuts. I would like to see Republicans defend cuts to those programs at the time.
Edit: His huge unfunded Covid relief bills also contributed to the inflation, something only Biden gets blamed for.
Hi Deborah,
I concede the growth aspect of Trump’s tax cuts the first time around (though targeting them primarily toward the rich is certainly debatable), but even with that acknowledged and the failures of Democratic governance in the article that Josh points out, in my mind, that is no substitute for voting Trump back in.
I won’t go over the litany of behavior and lawlessness that in my view disqualifies him from ever holding the office again, but on a separate point, even if you compare Trump’s and Kamala’s policy proposals this time around, his will be highly disruptive (mass deportations) and inflationary (more tax cuts, high tariffs, pressure on the Fed to keep rates low). I am not against deporting people who shouldn’t be here, but not in the militaristic, vile way Trump plans to. And I am not opposed to tax cuts even for wealthy people and big businesses, but I don’t think it should be primarily targeted to them and I definitely think those tax cuts, regardless of who’s proposing them, should be offset with spending reduction (I highly doubt Trump will touch Social Security, Medicare, or the military. He will very likely cut Medicaid—benefits for the poorest among us).
All of that is to say, I think the choice was clear in Kamala.
The electorate obviously disagreed. I respect your disagreement and say all this in kindness of feeling. But I truly do lament, more than anything, that character seems to play no role anymore in choosing who holds the highest office in the land.
My reaction to the 2024 election is so much different than in 2016 -- though in both cases I had nothing but contempt for the Democratic nominee who couldn't beat Donald Trump.
I woke up the day after the 2016 election and reacted like Charlton Heston at the end of Planet of the Apes. Trump was even worse than I imagined, but we made it through.
This time, while I have nothing but disdain for people who voted to go through *that* again, and have even lower expectations for Trump, I'm even more angry at the Democratic party leadership, The Groups, and Joe Biden (who never should've chosen Harris as VP in the first place).
I assume we'll get through it, and the midterms will put a check on President Trump. But I don't assume the Democrats will learn a damn thing. Not unless another Bill Clinton rises from the ashes.
Thank you for your brutal honesty about poor governance in deep blue states/cities and poor policy choices made by the Biden administration. Trying to fool the voters with Dark Brandon memes and "the Fed caused the inflation" unfortunately didn't work even though I agree that the "Orange man is bad" and an unacceptable choice for me and many voters.
The Fed is always responsible for inflation, nobody else. But stimulus made the Feds job harder.
The Fed's job is to bring down the inflation if it's high, which they did. They did not cause the inflation.
The Fed determines (roughly) the level of inflation. “Cause” is a bit of a squishy term.
https://substack.com/@thomaslhutcheson/note/c-76195883?r=1gd6d&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
I’m glad in some way that voters didn’t buy this BS. It assumes that the government can act as irresponsibly as possible with fiscal policies and the Fed has to bear all responsibility for fixing the issues that arise out of it.
I think the point here is a bit semantic. It is the Fed that chooses between high inflation and high interest rates -- you can have less of one if you have more of the other. But they both make voters angry, and you need different fiscal policy if you want both inflation and interest rates to be modest. That's what only Congress can produce.
Yes they most certainly did. The loose monetary policy was the primary driver of inflation
I'm not sure why you subscribe to Josh Barro's substack if you don't have any interest in reading what he has to say.
I used to be a Dem political speechwriter back in the 90s. I think we made a major mistake when we stopped using the bully pulpit of office to inspire/demand more from citizens. Great global cities stay that way because citizens take pride in their communities. In Tokyo, a lot of the subway trains have wooden floors. They can do that because riders don’t treat trains like their personal garbage cans. It’s a privilege to live in a great city and the least you can do is pick up for yourself, don’t treat your city job like a no show freebie gig, maybe ask your union to cool it with the 10 percent annual wage increases and increasing political control, like we have here in Chicago. These things cost nothing, but they mean so much for the livability of our cities and the sense that those who chose to live this way feel invested here and want others to envy us.
When Harris starting making her rallies a "celebrity" event she lost the average voter.
Hillary made the same mistake. Trump usually has some average person who has been wronged by either criminals, immigrants, or the government. Voters identify with someone like themselves not some high priced singer, athlete, or movie star.
I'm glad I can talk again about the foolishness of passing more stimulus while we're already in recovery, instead of pretending that wasn't true for the last few months.
Smart and useful essay, as always.
Question: How do you feel about the idea of this all being a vibes election? I.e. Do all the policy failings you mentioned pre-suppose a level of engagement that most voters simply didn’t have? And if that’s the case, will any policy fix actually be likely to bring anyone back?
This is something I’m genuinely unsure about.
In organizing meetings, fellows dems were positive we'd get even more voters than 2020. There was so much excitement about Kamala.
Why? She is the perfect example of an empty suit, she can't answer a question or string two sentences together without a teleprompter. How could she excite anyone? I would actually like to know, if there are any reasons. Any other than identity politics and DEI, that is.
A major portion was the whiplash from the negative enthusiasm of Biden.
Also, black women. They're a major component of dem organizers.
All fair criticisms but Trump also babbles incoherently like a low IQ person. If you think he's a charismatic speaker, you're just a partisan with very low standards for politicians that you support and can't credibly make the claims that you're making.
I agree with 99% here, but I think one of the major things democrats got wrong with cost of living wasn't just saying "look at my programs" but telling voters "No, you're wrong, the economy is great and inflation isn't a problem anymore."
Your comments about the party focusing as much as possible on spending more money even while inflation was at its peak have reminded me anew how mad I was about the repeated attempts to have the taxpayers pay for student debt, lol.
Agree with totally about the D’s ineptitude xand complete misreading of the electorate. But generally disagree with your fears concerning the next four years of the Trump presidency.
Josh,
I’m a swing state voter and agree with almost everything in this piece. I say almost because I struggle with this part
“As for trans issues, I have been skeptical about their political salience”
As early as last spring, there was chatter about the issue of trans girls in girls athletic teams in my upper middle class early-mid 40s suburban parents circle. My wife is one of the team moms for my daughter’s soccer team and we heard a couple of previously barely engaged parents get animated about this. These are people who have “Regulate guns, not women” bumper stickers. No one raised their concerns in broader settings to avoid being called transphobic or anti-LGBTQ, but I’d not be surprised if some quietly voted for Trump.
Dems need to get their heads out of the sand in this issue.
Can I ask, has there been a controversy about trans participation on the team itself, or are they animated about it in a more conceptual/national way?
Yes. For one of the parents, the mom was a competitive swimmer who had an athletic scholarship in college. The Lia Thomas controversy really rubbed her the wrong way. She actually asked us to sign a petition or something like that about a Title IX change. The other couple - they have an older daughter on the high school fencing team and had to compete against a trans athlete from another school.
I am sending you my post yesterday. Most of the U.S. are betting on Trump for another four years, and then the nightmare will be over. Please read and I apologize for the length. It was an expression of my anger yesterday.
WORLDWIDE DESTRUCTION COMES IN TWO FIVE-LETTER WORDS - PUTIN & TRUMP
Yesterday (November 5th), Rachael Maddow published a “Maddowblog” that she titled “Russian efforts to interfere with U.S. elections reach a new level. The questions isn’t whether Russia is targeting U.S. elections to help Donald Trump. It’s why?” To quote the first paragraph from this blog: “As Election Day got underway in Georgia, a handful of polling locations in Fulton County were temporarily evacuated after receiving bomb threats. The threats, fortunately, weren’t credible. As for who was responsible for making the threats, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger briefed news organizations on the developments. ‘We identified the source,’ the Republican official told reporters, and ‘it was from Russia.” In case you forgot, Brad Raffensperger is the same person who taped a phone call from then President Donald Trump in 2020 asking him to find 11,680 more votes. This bomb scare via the Russians is just the beginning of Trump’s revenge toward those who oppose him.
To answer Maddow’s question “why” are the Russians interfering in U.S. Elections - well, I have been writing about this since 2019 and attempting to warn Americans about Putin’s intentions toward the U.S. He now has maneuvered a man into the U.S. Presidency for a second time, that will provide him with U.S. top-secret information, that will not allow the U.S. to help Ukraine in their fight for freedom, and will DO AND JUMP THROUGH HOOPS to keep Putin happy in any way. This time around, Trump may pull the U.S. out of NATO - an alliance of democratic countries started in 1947 to protect the world from another Hitler. Unfortunately, another Hitler is now about to sleep in the White House again for not just another 4-year term but perhaps for the rest of his life. Remember Trump’s quote to Christians “that if you vote for me in November, in four years, you don’t have to vote again. We’ll have it fixed so good, you’re not gonna have to vote.” (Reuters, “Trump tells Christians they won’t have to vote after this election,” by Tim Reid, July 28, 2024) Believe him. Putin was voted into office in 2000 through an election. Almost 25 years later, he is still in office and refuses to leave.
The massive ignorance of “red-state” voters and others has once again allowed a criminal to rule this country. Trump is a convicted fraud (business, tax, and bank reports proved it without a doubt); he was convicted of 34 felony counts; and adjudicated and legally labeled a “sexual predator.” He instigated the insurrection to prevent the certification of the 2020 election. This, my friends, is treason. He now has control of the Senate, the House, and the Supreme Court. There are no more safety nets.
To repeat a passage from my last Substack message “From 1924 to 1933, the Nazi Party transformed from a small, violent, revolutionary party to the largest elected party in Germany (The Holocaust Explained, The Wiener Holocaust Library) “Following his release from prison on 20 December 1924, Hitler - yes he was a criminal too just like Trump - convinced the Chancellor of Bavaria to remove the ban on the Nazi Party. The rest is history. Hitler decided to change tactics and instead he focused on winning support for his party democratically and being elected into power. The Nazi Party changed from a paramilitary organization centralized on overthrowing the republic by force, to one focused on gaining power through elections and popular support.” Hitler’s decisions and actions are just like Donald Trump’s and the January 6th insurrection with American paramilitary organizations like The Proud Boys. (Ibid) In a matter of only a few years, Hitler’s Germany murdered over six million humans and was the decisive and momentous force that began World War II which killed another fifteen million soldiers and innocent people - who were all fighting for freedom. Hitler played a major role in the formation of political ideals for Vladimir Putin, and now Putin has played a similar role with Donald Trump.
Worldwide devastation and a repeat of World War II may be approaching. Only at this particular time and in the United States, we may not be on the side of freedom and democracy. The loss of women’s reproductive rights will spill over to other restrictive laws backed up by an American Gestapo. In the House of Representatives, H.R.6918 and other bills may legalize the monitoring of pregnant women. Now Trump will have control of the Senate as well as the House. There is no stopping him.
Let’s make it abundantly clear or extremely obvious to understand - Donald Trump was most likely caught with his pants down in Russia and photographed from all angles. Every single hotel room in Russia assigned to a foreigner - and especially an American - has cameras and listening devices. In Trump’s many trips to Russia, he also visited the Beverly Hills nightclub, casino, and restaurant. This club is known for it’s corruption, naked women, and famous faces - and cameras in the walls. In any case, this man was caught and bribed by Russian KGB/FSB and Putin. To prevent and block his embarrassment, he submits to Putin’s will and wishes.
I spent about twenty years living and working in dictator-led countries - mostly Russia. I have been through the KGB/FSB entrapment process just like Trump, only I was smarter. I lived in apartments, and he stayed in luxury hotels - only every single hotel room in Russia assigned to a foreigner has cameras and listening devices in the ceiling and walls. No exceptions.
I no longer have high hopes for our democracy. Just like the Germans about 100 years ago, our society has become subjugated to a man who is a criminal, who will say and do anything to protect his own ass, and has little to no economic sense but convinced millions of people he can control the debt. I will not be surprised if within a few short years, our country has been bankrupted. In the last quarter of 2020, our economy dropped by 32.9% - the largest dive in the history of the U.S. and all due to his spending. Do your own research. (GDP Drops at 32.9% Rate, the Worst U.S. Contraction Ever, NPR, July 30, 2020)
Do not blame the Democratic or even the Republican Parties. In 1997 in Russia, a book was published called The Foundations of Geopolitics. It outlines Putins presidential goals and his planned revenge on the United States who he blames for the downfall of the Soviet Union. His plan is the same approach used by Hitler to convince the masses to elect him and then follow his insane ideas - which slaughtered over 6 million humans and killed at least another 15 million on battlefields fighting for freedom from tyranny. I now wonder how many more will die because the U.S. just voted into the highest office of our land a man who does NOT care about the thousands of deaths in Ukraine or elsewhere - caused by Putin.
This collective decision by our country is a huge mistake, and we will all pay the price over time. Trump is just as vindictive and implacable as Putin.
Elizabeth Graham, www.democrazy2020.org
Until you can provide detailed specific evidence of your claims I will consider you a delusional conspiracy theorist in the same class as the showboating Adam Schiff who now will dishonor the Senate as he has dishonored the House. Rachel bought into Schiff’s disproved claims hook line and sinker. She is a very intelligent woman with absolutely no wisdom.
What do you think Schiff got wrong? I agree this is a delusional conspiracy theory, but I would class it with Trump rather than Schiff.
no
The narrative that 'Russian interference in the election caused Trump to win' is as destructive to our system of government as the narrative that 'The democrats stole the 2020 election'. The latter was driven by 'we all know how popular Trump is among real people and how it's impossible that he could lose.. and we found real evidence of fraud'. Yes there is fraud in very election, but it's minor, often discovered and corrected and did not affect the results of the 2020 election.
In the same way, yes there was a concerted effort by Russian to affect the outcome of our election. Yes, Trump is Putin's preferred candidate.... and as Josh pointed out, the place of greatest damage to the US and the world will be in the foreign policy arena. BUT it is very clear that the Russian attempt to meddle in our elections was NOT why trump won. The meddling would only have been effective in the margins. Trump won both the popular vote (for the first time ever) and won handedly in the swing states. Do not become a liberal version of Trump by pushing these narratives. Pushing them is only an excuse not to start cleaning house In the Democratic party and fixing the issues Josh points out.