Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Ryan Bhandari's avatar

I think you’re underestimating the grievance/whiny little bitch mentality that seems to have proliferated across the entire GOP base over the last few years. They have completely absorbed Trump’s martyrdom and interpret every “attack” on him as an attack on them, and I think the indictment would probably make him more likely to get the nomination just for that reason. I hope you’re right though because regardless of the politics, that bastard needs to face some justice.

Expand full comment
Mike G's avatar

I think another reason why the primary would be hell for the GOP is that it would badly divide the GOP base. If DeSantis were to win against Trump somehow (I'm very skeptical even if Trump gets indicted) it would depress a good chunk of the GOP turnout compared to what it would be with a Trump nomination. A lot of those who like Trump REALLY like him and would view a DeSantis bid as a betrayal by him. I live in Macomb County Michigan and what I think both conservative media and mainstream media underestimate based on my experience is how many of his voters not just like him but are extremely passionate about him. They don’t like him because of his policies but because he beats back the libs that want to drastically change the culture of the country. They don’t care about policy and have either forgiven him for his actions during Covid or completely swept it under the rug. During Covid they blamed the House Dems for issuing checks and people not coming back to work instead of the guy who signed those Covid bills into law. It’s all culture war all the time and to them Trump is the most effective culture warrior ever. They can’t imagine anyone else besides Trump running again

All this DeSantis talk is fun but it won’t translate to anything meaningful in real life. If he were to run in 2024 against Trump, strictly from an electoral perspective he’d be Jeb 2.0. He’d be someone viewed favorably by the elites but mostly ignored by the base. Unless things change and Trump decides not to run then I think the 2024 DeSantis nomination is just wishcasting by GOP elites who want Trump gone. Trump leads every poll taken about a hypothetical GOP primary and DeSantis would have to clear the field if he got nominated to have any shot. If I were DeSantis I’d wait until 2028. In 2026 I’d get a cushy Fox News gig to stay in the spotlight and then run for president afterwards. All in all I think that when Trump declares for 2024 DeSantis will eventually kiss the ring and campaign with Trump. If you come for the GOP king you best not miss. If DeSantis ran against Trump and lost both his career and his potential punditry career would be ruined.

Expand full comment
23 more comments...

No posts