I think you’re underestimating the grievance/whiny little bitch mentality that seems to have proliferated across the entire GOP base over the last few years. They have completely absorbed Trump’s martyrdom and interpret every “attack” on him as an attack on them, and I think the indictment would probably make him more likely to get the nomination just for that reason. I hope you’re right though because regardless of the politics, that bastard needs to face some justice.
I think another reason why the primary would be hell for the GOP is that it would badly divide the GOP base. If DeSantis were to win against Trump somehow (I'm very skeptical even if Trump gets indicted) it would depress a good chunk of the GOP turnout compared to what it would be with a Trump nomination. A lot of those who like Trump REALLY like him and would view a DeSantis bid as a betrayal by him. I live in Macomb County Michigan and what I think both conservative media and mainstream media underestimate based on my experience is how many of his voters not just like him but are extremely passionate about him. They don’t like him because of his policies but because he beats back the libs that want to drastically change the culture of the country. They don’t care about policy and have either forgiven him for his actions during Covid or completely swept it under the rug. During Covid they blamed the House Dems for issuing checks and people not coming back to work instead of the guy who signed those Covid bills into law. It’s all culture war all the time and to them Trump is the most effective culture warrior ever. They can’t imagine anyone else besides Trump running again
All this DeSantis talk is fun but it won’t translate to anything meaningful in real life. If he were to run in 2024 against Trump, strictly from an electoral perspective he’d be Jeb 2.0. He’d be someone viewed favorably by the elites but mostly ignored by the base. Unless things change and Trump decides not to run then I think the 2024 DeSantis nomination is just wishcasting by GOP elites who want Trump gone. Trump leads every poll taken about a hypothetical GOP primary and DeSantis would have to clear the field if he got nominated to have any shot. If I were DeSantis I’d wait until 2028. In 2026 I’d get a cushy Fox News gig to stay in the spotlight and then run for president afterwards. All in all I think that when Trump declares for 2024 DeSantis will eventually kiss the ring and campaign with Trump. If you come for the GOP king you best not miss. If DeSantis ran against Trump and lost both his career and his potential punditry career would be ruined.
How likely is it that Trump will still be under indictment by 2024 (as opposed to having been acquitted, pled out, literally in prison)? All of those would have different implications I certainly imagine.
Would it help for people like me to say publicly to Trump people, “you can’t have trump and me voting republican. You either get me with DeSantis or me against trump.” I wonder how many trump supporters will take trump over winning the general? Or the other way around.
Perhaps the people predicting a Trump indictment will make him the nominee are right. But what is their track record for making reliable predictions? Did they see Trump coming in 2015? More humility from prognosticators would be welcome.
Jeez, what happened to midterms? All of this fairly speculative in an arena where each party's presumptive nominee is a septuagenarian who might well smell toast burning and keel over long before 2024...
Trump won't conceded defeat if he loses the primary, whereas DeSantis will. For this reason, Trump stands a better chance of winning the general election than DeSantis. Understanding this likelihood (but not really admitting the hostage-situation logic behind it to themselves), Republicans will probably talk themselves into supporting Trump again.
Trump could make this logic brutally clear during a primary: DeSantis would say that Trump was a mixed bag as president but we should move on, while Trump would say that DeSantis is a child molester with an ugly wife whose campaign is secretly funded by Hillary Clinton.
Spot on here. This primary will be a disaster either way for Republicans. Either the party will begin to eat itself or it nominates Trump with DeSantis sitting out, and Trump is a bad candidate.
Isn’t it early to assume it’s strictly Trump vs DeSantis? Trump wasn’t even on the radar as a presidential candidate in 2014. In previous contested primaries a lot of the characters that showed up weren’t on the radar until they were in contention (who knew who Rick Santorum was in 2010?) I have a hunch that neither Trump nor DeSantis wins.
Sound analysis, but why do you presume the 2024 GOP nomination won’t be pretty divisive still w/o Trump? Do you think DeSantis would win easily? I don’t. And other candidates will pull him to the Right/force him to support Trump’s bs
I think you’re underestimating the grievance/whiny little bitch mentality that seems to have proliferated across the entire GOP base over the last few years. They have completely absorbed Trump’s martyrdom and interpret every “attack” on him as an attack on them, and I think the indictment would probably make him more likely to get the nomination just for that reason. I hope you’re right though because regardless of the politics, that bastard needs to face some justice.
I think another reason why the primary would be hell for the GOP is that it would badly divide the GOP base. If DeSantis were to win against Trump somehow (I'm very skeptical even if Trump gets indicted) it would depress a good chunk of the GOP turnout compared to what it would be with a Trump nomination. A lot of those who like Trump REALLY like him and would view a DeSantis bid as a betrayal by him. I live in Macomb County Michigan and what I think both conservative media and mainstream media underestimate based on my experience is how many of his voters not just like him but are extremely passionate about him. They don’t like him because of his policies but because he beats back the libs that want to drastically change the culture of the country. They don’t care about policy and have either forgiven him for his actions during Covid or completely swept it under the rug. During Covid they blamed the House Dems for issuing checks and people not coming back to work instead of the guy who signed those Covid bills into law. It’s all culture war all the time and to them Trump is the most effective culture warrior ever. They can’t imagine anyone else besides Trump running again
All this DeSantis talk is fun but it won’t translate to anything meaningful in real life. If he were to run in 2024 against Trump, strictly from an electoral perspective he’d be Jeb 2.0. He’d be someone viewed favorably by the elites but mostly ignored by the base. Unless things change and Trump decides not to run then I think the 2024 DeSantis nomination is just wishcasting by GOP elites who want Trump gone. Trump leads every poll taken about a hypothetical GOP primary and DeSantis would have to clear the field if he got nominated to have any shot. If I were DeSantis I’d wait until 2028. In 2026 I’d get a cushy Fox News gig to stay in the spotlight and then run for president afterwards. All in all I think that when Trump declares for 2024 DeSantis will eventually kiss the ring and campaign with Trump. If you come for the GOP king you best not miss. If DeSantis ran against Trump and lost both his career and his potential punditry career would be ruined.
How likely is it that Trump will still be under indictment by 2024 (as opposed to having been acquitted, pled out, literally in prison)? All of those would have different implications I certainly imagine.
Would it help for people like me to say publicly to Trump people, “you can’t have trump and me voting republican. You either get me with DeSantis or me against trump.” I wonder how many trump supporters will take trump over winning the general? Or the other way around.
Perhaps the people predicting a Trump indictment will make him the nominee are right. But what is their track record for making reliable predictions? Did they see Trump coming in 2015? More humility from prognosticators would be welcome.
Jeez, what happened to midterms? All of this fairly speculative in an arena where each party's presumptive nominee is a septuagenarian who might well smell toast burning and keel over long before 2024...
Trump won't conceded defeat if he loses the primary, whereas DeSantis will. For this reason, Trump stands a better chance of winning the general election than DeSantis. Understanding this likelihood (but not really admitting the hostage-situation logic behind it to themselves), Republicans will probably talk themselves into supporting Trump again.
Trump could make this logic brutally clear during a primary: DeSantis would say that Trump was a mixed bag as president but we should move on, while Trump would say that DeSantis is a child molester with an ugly wife whose campaign is secretly funded by Hillary Clinton.
Spot on here. This primary will be a disaster either way for Republicans. Either the party will begin to eat itself or it nominates Trump with DeSantis sitting out, and Trump is a bad candidate.
Isn’t it early to assume it’s strictly Trump vs DeSantis? Trump wasn’t even on the radar as a presidential candidate in 2014. In previous contested primaries a lot of the characters that showed up weren’t on the radar until they were in contention (who knew who Rick Santorum was in 2010?) I have a hunch that neither Trump nor DeSantis wins.
Interesting. Thank you.
Sound analysis, but why do you presume the 2024 GOP nomination won’t be pretty divisive still w/o Trump? Do you think DeSantis would win easily? I don’t. And other candidates will pull him to the Right/force him to support Trump’s bs
I recall a comment from a few weeks ago.
Alexander Hamilton may have been on to something.