Mar 15, 2022·edited Mar 15, 2022Liked by Josh Barro
My pithy statement is that the Biden administration needs to demonstrate it cares more about how these events are impacting Americans than how they impact the midterms or their reelection prospects.
A little less pithily, I would like to see the Administration treat us like grown-up rather than whiny children who can be scolded to shut up. The inflation we are experiencing is largely to due to factors outside of the Administration's control. That doesn't make it any less painful.
I would like the see the Administration model some leadership in this regard, and stifle this general instinct to pretend things aren't happening, or that only the Wrong Kind of People are upset about it, or it's all connected to the Koch Brothers or some other dark forces, or whatever.
I agree with everything you say here. Speculation time! I think that a lot of the inflation politics by Dems is a result of internal psychology. They know that we had a choice between inflation and a recession with sky-high unemployment. While inflation is a VERY bitter pill to swallow, it was the right choice. The psychology comes in because Dems think (likely correctly) that they would get hammered way more for a recession and job losses. It's really hard to make the case to people feeling the pain of inflation, that it could have been way worse (even when that's likely true). It blows. I get it; but like Josh says, it's the card you've been dealt. Get together after work for drinks and pizza and complain about the voters (just make sure there are no cameras or reporters around!). This is what separates the Dems from the GOP. They are a responsible governing party that is willing to pull the lever on solutions that are good in the long run but may hurt them politically in short term (e.g. 1A - Obamacare). People may remember that in 2024 when they have a choice between Biden and whichever culture warrior the GOP nominates.
Why was there a choice between unemployment and a recession? You mean the American Rescue Act? It appears like they WAY overspent there which caused inflation. They could've spent a lot less and gotten a better result most likely.
If the ARP had been smaller by a few hundred billion or a trillion dollars, we would have gotten substantially less inflation and only a bit less employment. But inflation would still be quite high.
I stand corrected on the recession. I do still hold that people like free money and that high inflation would be even less popular if individual and family balance sheets didn't get the extra juice from CARES and ARP. I can't remember it was on your podcast with Jason Furman or Derek Thompson's but Furman himself said he would have voted for ARP if he was a congress person.
I have wondered about this. I am inclined to agree, but have you seen any decent research about the level of stimulus where visible inflationary effects manifest? You'd have thought after ~800bn in '08 you'd have seen some, at least.
Edit: perhaps the nature of stimulus? (some direct cash payments for example)
I am mostly with you up 'til the bit about being responsible.
I say this as a dissident conservative, but the dynamic seems to be more along the lines of Democrats proposing ideas, the vast majority of which are batshit crazy, while the GOP defines itself in opposition to those ideas, including the good ones.
That said, I can't argue with the culture warrior comment...
As a Dem I am obviously biased but I do earnestly believe that Dems are more attached to reality than the GOP. Look at the bailouts in 2008 and CARES in 2020. In a divided government where Dems likely had little to gain (from an electoral standpoint) from helping Bush and Trump respectively, regardless they helped push them across the finish line. Certainly there are many irresponsible Dems, but I can't think of many examples off the top of my head where the GOP has acted that responsibly and can think of many where they were acting very irresponsibly (debt ceiling, government shutdowns, bank bailouts in 2008).
I agree with a decent amount of this, but #4 is not a good strategy unless it comes with action. Biden is bizarrely portraying himself as incapable of doing anything. He blames Putin for some of the issues (which is true to an extent, but let's not pretend that inflation wasn't rising significantly before the invasion of Ukraine), but then he acts like he has no control over anything. He makes excuses and blames others which is weak leadership. I'm not saying he should say everything is his fault, but he needs to shift the blame AND follow up with action to help alleviate inflation and gas prices.
I don't understand the White House's PR strategy. His Chief of Staff and Press Secretary rarely serve Biden well. Honestly, it's been very poor for his entire presidency.
I agree. Blaming gas prices on Russia doesn’t work very well as a sound bite. Gas prices had already risen substantially before the war. The war has made it much worse, but it comes off as dishonest to blame Russia without the nuance. And that’s the sort of thing that doesn’t work with the general attention span. and then on top of that you have the issue that blaming Russia and China makes you look ineffectual.
My pithy statement is that the Biden administration needs to demonstrate it cares more about how these events are impacting Americans than how they impact the midterms or their reelection prospects.
A little less pithily, I would like to see the Administration treat us like grown-up rather than whiny children who can be scolded to shut up. The inflation we are experiencing is largely to due to factors outside of the Administration's control. That doesn't make it any less painful.
I would like the see the Administration model some leadership in this regard, and stifle this general instinct to pretend things aren't happening, or that only the Wrong Kind of People are upset about it, or it's all connected to the Koch Brothers or some other dark forces, or whatever.
Buy that may just be me.
Totally agree!
I agree with everything you say here. Speculation time! I think that a lot of the inflation politics by Dems is a result of internal psychology. They know that we had a choice between inflation and a recession with sky-high unemployment. While inflation is a VERY bitter pill to swallow, it was the right choice. The psychology comes in because Dems think (likely correctly) that they would get hammered way more for a recession and job losses. It's really hard to make the case to people feeling the pain of inflation, that it could have been way worse (even when that's likely true). It blows. I get it; but like Josh says, it's the card you've been dealt. Get together after work for drinks and pizza and complain about the voters (just make sure there are no cameras or reporters around!). This is what separates the Dems from the GOP. They are a responsible governing party that is willing to pull the lever on solutions that are good in the long run but may hurt them politically in short term (e.g. 1A - Obamacare). People may remember that in 2024 when they have a choice between Biden and whichever culture warrior the GOP nominates.
Why was there a choice between unemployment and a recession? You mean the American Rescue Act? It appears like they WAY overspent there which caused inflation. They could've spent a lot less and gotten a better result most likely.
If the ARP had been smaller by a few hundred billion or a trillion dollars, we would have gotten substantially less inflation and only a bit less employment. But inflation would still be quite high.
I stand corrected on the recession. I do still hold that people like free money and that high inflation would be even less popular if individual and family balance sheets didn't get the extra juice from CARES and ARP. I can't remember it was on your podcast with Jason Furman or Derek Thompson's but Furman himself said he would have voted for ARP if he was a congress person.
I have wondered about this. I am inclined to agree, but have you seen any decent research about the level of stimulus where visible inflationary effects manifest? You'd have thought after ~800bn in '08 you'd have seen some, at least.
Edit: perhaps the nature of stimulus? (some direct cash payments for example)
I am mostly with you up 'til the bit about being responsible.
I say this as a dissident conservative, but the dynamic seems to be more along the lines of Democrats proposing ideas, the vast majority of which are batshit crazy, while the GOP defines itself in opposition to those ideas, including the good ones.
That said, I can't argue with the culture warrior comment...
As a Dem I am obviously biased but I do earnestly believe that Dems are more attached to reality than the GOP. Look at the bailouts in 2008 and CARES in 2020. In a divided government where Dems likely had little to gain (from an electoral standpoint) from helping Bush and Trump respectively, regardless they helped push them across the finish line. Certainly there are many irresponsible Dems, but I can't think of many examples off the top of my head where the GOP has acted that responsibly and can think of many where they were acting very irresponsibly (debt ceiling, government shutdowns, bank bailouts in 2008).
A long podcast with you and Andrew Sullivan would be great.
I agree with a decent amount of this, but #4 is not a good strategy unless it comes with action. Biden is bizarrely portraying himself as incapable of doing anything. He blames Putin for some of the issues (which is true to an extent, but let's not pretend that inflation wasn't rising significantly before the invasion of Ukraine), but then he acts like he has no control over anything. He makes excuses and blames others which is weak leadership. I'm not saying he should say everything is his fault, but he needs to shift the blame AND follow up with action to help alleviate inflation and gas prices.
I don't understand the White House's PR strategy. His Chief of Staff and Press Secretary rarely serve Biden well. Honestly, it's been very poor for his entire presidency.
Yes, and to be precise, Putin didn't cause the oil supply issues directly; the sanctions did.
Now, I think most people believe that's an acceptable, or even morally imperative, trade-off. But to say it's all Putin's fault is to deny agency.
I agree. Blaming gas prices on Russia doesn’t work very well as a sound bite. Gas prices had already risen substantially before the war. The war has made it much worse, but it comes off as dishonest to blame Russia without the nuance. And that’s the sort of thing that doesn’t work with the general attention span. and then on top of that you have the issue that blaming Russia and China makes you look ineffectual.