“Low-engagement voters are likely to decide this election, and I’m not sure about how much they will consider the relationship between the candidates, the “vibes,” and the policies that are actually likely to determine how much it costs to finance an automobile purchase.”
This is infuriating and utterly depressing. It makes me angry at a swath of the American people that not only are not taking seriously Trump’s utter character unfitness for office; they’re not even thinking through which candidate will deliver policies that will personally benefit them more. If they want to shoot themselves in the foot, our democratic system enables them to do so. It just sucks the rest of us have to live with the consequences of that.
I am an optimist, but if trends don’t significantly improve for Biden, he will lose. Trump already over performs his polling, and he’s currently *leading.* If these low information voters show up in droves, and if there really is as much of shift away from Biden in the working class vote, especially among young voters and voters of color, then it’s not going to be close. Trump will win in an electoral college landslide with Biden winning the popular vote by a few million point margin.
I am pulling for Biden big time, I personally like him, and he damn sure doesn’t get the credit he deserves from these voters. But the facts are what they are, and I think we all need to at least be prepared for another Trump presidency and what that entails across the board.
The spending category is why I have a hard time stomaching full democratic control. Biden’s proposed spending increases are just insane in the current circumstances. Democrats continue to keep pushing to normalize the incredibly expensive expanded child tax credit. Tax policy will be better under Democratic control, but as your multi-time guest Jason Furman has pointed out, Democrats won’t be able to make any significant deficit headway by holding the line at 400k. Obviously just about everything looks worse if Trump is in the White House. And republicans sure aren’t making a pivot towards sanity on any front.
I don't want to oversell this, but the evidence there is *does* suggest that would-be retirees treat the Social Security full retirement age as a meaningful indication of when they ought to retire. So it's not nothing.
A 2nd Trump presidency will gravely injure the USA, economically and socially, but the USA will survive and Trump will be done playing the American dictator after four years. The more serious harm will be to the entire world, as he helps Putin defeat Ukraine and with that encourages him to embark on further aggression against other parts of Europe. China will also see a Trump presidency as the best time to invade Taiwan. In other words, a world in flames, just like the 1940’s. If you don’t think it could happen again, watch this about the Hitler supporters, both in the public and in Congress, in the late 1930’s.
This is not the world I want my three grandchildren to live in.
Josh, would you consider a regular podcast discussing the concrete repercussions of a 2nd Trump term? As you say, it is more likely than not to occur. Personally, I think the odds are in the 60-70% range. We have 9 months to prepare and I would love to hear what you have to say. Maybe you can bring on some other ‘tell it straight’ type guys like Matthew Iglesias to get in the weeds and help us understand what to expect.
Josh, I generally like your takes, but you lost me the moment that you suggested that Trump would make decisions regarding the federal budget based on political implications or long-term fiscal implications for the United States. If Trump is elected, all of his actions will be predicated on two things, first, what is best financially for him and second, what gets him the most applause and adulation from his group of ignorant worshipers. Those are the only things that motivate him.
"...blunder our way into a nuclear war or some similarly awful foreign policy catastrophe."
I would argue that shoveling money and arms to Ukraine has risked that nuclear war, for a place Barak Obama himself said was of no strategic interest to the U.S. The blob poses a bigger potential foreign policy catastrophe than The Donald
“Low-engagement voters are likely to decide this election, and I’m not sure about how much they will consider the relationship between the candidates, the “vibes,” and the policies that are actually likely to determine how much it costs to finance an automobile purchase.”
This is infuriating and utterly depressing. It makes me angry at a swath of the American people that not only are not taking seriously Trump’s utter character unfitness for office; they’re not even thinking through which candidate will deliver policies that will personally benefit them more. If they want to shoot themselves in the foot, our democratic system enables them to do so. It just sucks the rest of us have to live with the consequences of that.
I am an optimist, but if trends don’t significantly improve for Biden, he will lose. Trump already over performs his polling, and he’s currently *leading.* If these low information voters show up in droves, and if there really is as much of shift away from Biden in the working class vote, especially among young voters and voters of color, then it’s not going to be close. Trump will win in an electoral college landslide with Biden winning the popular vote by a few million point margin.
I am pulling for Biden big time, I personally like him, and he damn sure doesn’t get the credit he deserves from these voters. But the facts are what they are, and I think we all need to at least be prepared for another Trump presidency and what that entails across the board.
The spending category is why I have a hard time stomaching full democratic control. Biden’s proposed spending increases are just insane in the current circumstances. Democrats continue to keep pushing to normalize the incredibly expensive expanded child tax credit. Tax policy will be better under Democratic control, but as your multi-time guest Jason Furman has pointed out, Democrats won’t be able to make any significant deficit headway by holding the line at 400k. Obviously just about everything looks worse if Trump is in the White House. And republicans sure aren’t making a pivot towards sanity on any front.
Good article, albeit depressing.
I don't want to oversell this, but the evidence there is *does* suggest that would-be retirees treat the Social Security full retirement age as a meaningful indication of when they ought to retire. So it's not nothing.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.4.4.41
A 2nd Trump presidency will gravely injure the USA, economically and socially, but the USA will survive and Trump will be done playing the American dictator after four years. The more serious harm will be to the entire world, as he helps Putin defeat Ukraine and with that encourages him to embark on further aggression against other parts of Europe. China will also see a Trump presidency as the best time to invade Taiwan. In other words, a world in flames, just like the 1940’s. If you don’t think it could happen again, watch this about the Hitler supporters, both in the public and in Congress, in the late 1930’s.
This is not the world I want my three grandchildren to live in.
Rachel Maddow on “Prequel” and fascism in America
https://youtu.be/uocsL3kfvAg?si=srvKcpO4K0CnJb5F
Josh, would you consider a regular podcast discussing the concrete repercussions of a 2nd Trump term? As you say, it is more likely than not to occur. Personally, I think the odds are in the 60-70% range. We have 9 months to prepare and I would love to hear what you have to say. Maybe you can bring on some other ‘tell it straight’ type guys like Matthew Iglesias to get in the weeds and help us understand what to expect.
Josh, I generally like your takes, but you lost me the moment that you suggested that Trump would make decisions regarding the federal budget based on political implications or long-term fiscal implications for the United States. If Trump is elected, all of his actions will be predicated on two things, first, what is best financially for him and second, what gets him the most applause and adulation from his group of ignorant worshipers. Those are the only things that motivate him.
insightful
"...blunder our way into a nuclear war or some similarly awful foreign policy catastrophe."
I would argue that shoveling money and arms to Ukraine has risked that nuclear war, for a place Barak Obama himself said was of no strategic interest to the U.S. The blob poses a bigger potential foreign policy catastrophe than The Donald